How Good is Xabi Alonso?
Jürgen Klopp is due to leave Liverpool this summer, and Xabi Alonso is the overwhelming favourite to replace him.
When I first launched this Substack last month, I wanted to kick things off by addressing what I felt was the primary talking point on Merseyside. Jürgen Klopp is going to leave Liverpool at the end of the season, so who on earth is going to replace him?
I used data to search Europe for potential candidates and dedicated five posts to the topic, but in the eyes of many supporters, my analysis was likely viewed as unnecessary. From the moment that Klopp announced his shock decision, everybody already knew the name of his perfect successor.
Xabi Alonso is the overwhelming fan-favourite for the job, and if you suggest otherwise, your mates will probably accuse you of thinking too much. The Spaniard is experiencing the mother of all seasons right now, hence the clamour for his signature.
So just how good is Liverpool’s number one candidate?
First of all, let’s start with what we can see on the surface. In a word, Alonso looks good. In fact, he genuinely couldn’t be doing much better. The ex-Reds midfielder has faced 38 hurdles since the campaign started last August, and he’s jumped every single one of them.
This guy seems to be pretty good at athletics management. His Bayer Leverkusen side are the only unbeaten team in all competitions across the whole of Europe right now, which is outrageous considering April is just around the corner.
In fact, earlier this month, Leverkusen broke the German record for consecutive competitive matches without suffering from a single loss, which was previously held by Hansi Flick’s imperious Bayern Munich outfit of 2020/21.
Alonso’s men are averaging 2.69 points per game in the Bundesliga this term, which is nuts. For context, Bayern hold the record for most points amassed in a single Bundesliga campaign with 91 in 2012/13. Their average during that season? 2.68 points per match.
Leverkusen have won 34 and drawn four of their 38 matches in all competitions. They are ten points clear in the Bundesliga, and they seem likely to win the DFB-Pokal based on the last four teams remaining in the competition, meaning a double at the very least feels almost inevitable.
At this point, it’s worth remembering that Leverkusen have never won a top-flight title. They are renowned for falling short when it matters, yet Alonso has basically turned them into a peak version of Bayern in about 18 months.
Now, I’ll admit, things look pretty special on the surface. To be honest, the car is driving so well that it’s questionable as to whether it’s even worth checking under the hood.
Nevertheless, that’s what this Substack is about. Outcomes can just happen in a low-scoring sport like football, which is why we’ll often disregard results and goals when analysing players, teams or managers.
In their search for an heir to Klopp’s throne, Liverpool will be interested in assessing the process behind the outcomes. Sure, Alonso has won a billion games in a row, but what we want to know is whether that form is going to continue. Is the whole thing sustainable?
So let’s start by having a quick glance at each team’s underlying numbers in the Bundesliga this term, purely as a means of getting a clearer view of the full picture.
Below, each team in the league has been plotted according to their non-penalty xG and non-penalty xG faced per match. Those two metrics offer an insight into attacking creation at one end, and defensive security at the other end.
Leverkusen are quite clearly pretty good, that’s important to note. They are one of only five teams in the Bundesliga to create more than they allow, which is a vital indictor of a well-coached outfit.
Alonso has delivered the joint-best defence in Germany alongside Bayern, and his attack is the second-best behind, again, Bayern. So what gives, why aren’t the seasoned champions of Bavaria leading the race, then?
Well, there’s a few things here. First of all, Bayern have better players to such an extent that it’s almost inevitable — regardless of their manager — for them to show up with the most dangerous attack.
Second, despite creating the most, Bayern haven’t finished their chances anywhere near as well as Leverkusen. In fact, Alonso’s men have scored about 10.5 goals more than expected this term.
Now, I’d like to blame Alonso for Leverkusen’s hot finishing, I really would, but we tend to file this sort of thing in the Variance folder. Sometimes, players just do well in front of goal. You can put it down to morale if you want to find a way of crediting the man in charge, but I’m not sure the manager can influence that much.
Upon inspection of Europe’s big six leagues, only two teams have overperformed with their finishing more than Leverkusen: Sporting CP and AS Roma. Álex Grimaldo has been the main culprit, not least because he’s scored three goals from outside the penalty box.
Excellent finishing certainly isn’t a bad thing. We all want our players to be ruthless, but it is the sort of strength that could randomly disappear for no reason next season, and that’s without the manager changing anything.
Bayern, for example, scored 16 goals more than expected last season. This term, they are overperforming by only five goals, which is perhaps one of the reasons why they aren’t picking up as many wins as before.
In addition to putting the ball in the net, Leverkusen have also been really good at not conceding thanks to their goalkeeper. Lukáš Hrádecký and Matej Kovar, who played one game, should have conceded about 22 goals based on the shots on target they’ve faced, but they’ve actually shipped just 18.
That overperformance of four goals isn’t that weird, but it has benefited the team and therefore, the manager. Alonso could be making Hrádecký feel really good about himself, but again, this feels like variance.
We can’t really congratulate Alonso for his goalkeeper doing him favours by making unexpected saves. We can’t criticise Thomas Tuchel too much for the opposite, either, but we can appreciate how much Bayern have suffered from sub-standard goalkeeping this term.
So overall, if we combine what has been happening at both ends — in terms of finishing and goalkeeping — Leverkusen have gained around 15 goals in total, and it’s difficult to suggest Alonso is responsible for any of that.
Every manager wants his players to overdeliver in attack and defence. It’s nice when it happens, especially because results tend to be easier to secure, but you can’t expect it to persist. You have to bet on the process, not the outcomes.
Luckily for Leverkusen, their baseline performance level — in terms of creating optimal shots and not facing many — is still really good. They would be doing well even if their finishing was average, and that’s really important.
Bayern also look pretty great in the numbers, but it feels like a multitude of intangible factors have contributed to their downfall. Tuchel already knows he’s gone in the summer, for example, and he’s openly criticised his players on a few occasions. The Bavarian outfit have suffered from red cards in crucial games, also conceding late goals at times.
When you think about it, the whole scenario genuinely couldn’t have been any more perfect if a Scouser was writing the script for Alonso. To suggest that he’s rolled a six would be an understatement.
Away from the Bundesliga, let’s have a quick look at how Leverkusen look in comparison to every team from Europe’s big six leagues, specifically when it comes to progression.
Going back to one of my earlier articles, progression is what it’s all about, so allow me to quote myself for a moment:
In possession, football is about scoring goals. To score goals, you need to generate shots, ideally from healthy locations. To generate shots from healthy locations, you need to be reaching the penalty box often. To reach the penalty box often, you need to progress the ball through the thirds of the pitch from deeper areas.
You want to progress the ball as much as possible, while restricting your opponents from doing the exact same as much as possible. So to determine which teams have been good or bad according to that this season, I’m going to use my progression difference metric again.
For those who aren’t aware, progression difference is just the number of progressive passes completed by a team per match, minus the number they concede. So if your team completes 20 per match and concedes 18, their differential would be +2.
Below, the best 20 teams across Europe’s big six leagues have been ranked according to their progression difference on a per-90 basis, with Leverkusen looking pretty great.
If you face Alonso, you’ll likely find it difficult to cut through his team, but his players will probably progress through your structure with ease. This is good news.
At this point, it’s important to flag the level of the players representing some of the teams on the above list. Arsenal and Manchester City have great Premier League players. Porto and Benfica have great Primeira Liga players. The same applies to Bayern in Germany and Paris Saint-Germain in France.
Now, Alonso isn’t exactly managing a gang of farmers, but it’s reasonable to suggest he doesn’t quite have the finest ingredients at his disposal. Once considering player level, you realise how much of an excellent job he’s doing.
The name of the game is harvesting what you can from what you’ve got. Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham Hotspur is also worth praising for the same reason, as is Roberto De Zerbi at Brighton and Hove Albion.
So how do we conclude this? Well, Alonso looks boss, but you already knew that. As expected, the stuff under the hood is very healthy. You simply don’t go unbeaten for a whole campaign if that isn’t the case.
Leverkusen create a good amount in attack, and they don’t concede much at all in defence. Alonso has profited from a clinical conversion rate and impressive saves, but not to the extent that we need to forecast an impending struggle for his team.
There is one final take I’d like to add, though. And prepare yourself, because it’s shaped by the data, meaning it has no interest in happiness or fun. So although Alonso is quite clearly a very good manager, we’re not talking about signing Lionel Messi here.
He’s the best man for the job and arguably the biggest managerial prospect on the continent, but if Liverpool don’t land his signature, there are other guys out there. He’s not the best by such an extent that we all need to give up and support another team.
The margins are really fine, and as argued since I first launched my Substack, the impact of a manager does tend to be overplayed in football. Strictly performance-wise, there isn’t that much between him and, say, Sebastian Hoeneß in charge of Stuttgart this season.
You do absolutely everything you can to sign him, 100 per cent, and he probably is the best on the market, but if he goes elsewhere, it’s not the end of the world.
*walks off the stage*
… hope Liverpool get him, though.
Great read, Josh! Glad to finally be able to support your work
Having said that, apologizes that my first comment is to object to one of your points: over-performing xG is not a worrying indicator for a title-winning side.
For the past 5 years in PL, every title winning side over-performed their xG. The numbers for GF - xG (starting from last season going backward) are: 15.4, 10.3, 14.8, 16.1, 10.7 (fbref)
No one would say that Klopp or Guardiola just benefited from hot finishing every season. It just seems to be a characteristic of title-winning sides.
great read, heard you promote this channel on the deep dive on redmen and i just knew i needed to be here. Keep up the great work and il keep reading and listening