Scouting Forwards: The Fine Print
The fourth instalment of a five-part series dedicated to finding a new forward Liverpool.
We’re getting closer to the end of this series now. This is the fourth Scouting Forwards post, you can read the other three below if you haven’t already.
So here we are. From around 4,000 options to just 15. After analysing the players based on what they tend to do on the pitch, this post is going to focus on their contract details to determine who is likely to be attainable this summer, and who isn’t.
The players who remain in the process are as follows:
Michael Olise, Marcus Edwards, Yankuba Minteh, Jamal Musiala, Omar Marmoush, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Rafael Leão, Bryan Mbeumo, Johan Bakayoko, Anthony Gordon, Moussa Diaby, Rayan Cherki, Edon Zhegrova, Nico Williams, Pedro Neto.
Considering we’re after a wide player who is under the age of 26, I’m pretty satisfied with where we’ve landed here. Having had a quick glance at each of the names still involved, the players left on the list feel right.
It’s time for us to take a look at contracts. The fine print. Whenever I see mainstream transfer analysis, this sort of thing tends to get overlooked. Looking at the length of a player’s contract and the salary he’s earning isn’t quite as exciting as watching his highlight reel on YouTube.
I get it, but players on long contracts just don’t move. That’s a generic shout, but one that is largely true and applies to pretty much the whole of the transfer market. The longer the contract, the more you’ll have to pay in terms of a transfer fee to land the player.
Moreover, if a player is already earning loads at his current club, say at the age of 24, for example, you would have to give him a rise once signing him, and then potentially give him another two contracts before he eventually leaves in his thirties.
For that reason, the guys who aren’t earning much — relatively speaking — always feel more attractive to Liverpool. You can spend a bit more on the transfer fee in those cases, knowing you’ll save a bit in wages.
Luis Díaz, for example, cost a fair amount to land from FC Porto. The Reds paid about £37m, but since he joined, he’s only — yes, I realise how silly I sound here — been earning around £55k per week.
Jadon Sancho, by contrast, is already earning just under £200k per week at Manchester United, having joined in 2021. If he stays at Old Trafford for the rest of his career — which seems unlikely right now — imagine what he could be earning by the age of 30.
If you go big on the transfer fee, you want to save on the wages. If you can save on the transfer fee, cool, you can go a bit higher on the wages. Thiago Alcântara, for example, moved to Anfield for just £20m in 2021. That was affordable, so the Reds could immediately make him one of the highest earners with a wage of about 200k per week.
So without further ado, let’s take a glance at some of the contractual concerns attached to the final 15 players in our sample. Below, you’ll find the guys with long deals, expensive wages, or both.
Some unsurprising red flags here. Minteh only signed for Newcastle United last year, so his deal runs until 2028. In terms of his wage, though, he’s not on that much considering he’s still a teenager.
Williams and Olise also have red flags next to their names. Both have rumoured release clauses, so it isn’t all bad, but they are big earners at Athletic Bilbao and Crystal Palace.
In fact, Williams is already earning 200k (!!) per week. What? Two hundred grand. This guy is 21 years old. Olise is earning half that, but his 100k per week is still a fair amount for a player who has never heared the Champions League music.
As for Leão and Diaby, I love both of them but really don’t think either are attainable. They both have contracts until 2028, and they are both already earning around £130k per week. It’s just not happening. Aston Villa are under pressure to sell, but Jhon Durán and Jacob Ramsey seem more likely to raise funds for the Midlands club this summer.
At this point, purely to keep things realistic, I’m going to remove Leão, Diaby and Williams from the process. All brilliant, but all way too expensive. I’m also going to hold a one-minute silence — starting 60 seconds ago — because I’m a bit gutted.
That leaves us with 12 players who are more on the market this summer. You can see an overview of each player’s contract length below. When a player enters the final two years of his deal, that’s when the sharks begin to circle.
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