There’s a meme that you’ll have seen doing the rounds on social media over the past few months. It involves a scene from The Sopranos, and it’s one of my favourites.
For those who aren’t aware, the meme consists of a psychiatrist sitting in a chair, having a conversation with her client. “Last week, you mentioned that we’re back,” she says. “But this week, you tell me it’s over. What changed?”
A fitting question, once applied to the world of football fandom. It only takes one good result for a Manchester United legend to believe they’ve turned a corner, only for them to lose 3-1 against Brighton and Hove Albion three days later.
On this Substack, we believe in the process behind your results. Although Liverpool certainly tested that faith against Brentford on the weekend.
We came within just a few minutes of sheer unadulterated fume on Saturday afternoon. The Reds had drawn each of their previous two Premier League matches, and they were about to draw another, opening the door for Arsenal to close the gap at the summit.
Luckily for us, Darwin Núñez bagged a late brace to snatch three points from the Bees. After the final whistle, I was just as relieved as I was happy. Because supporters don’t care about processes, they care about outcomes. They care about results.
Liverpool accumulated 37 shots (!!) at the Gtech Community Stadium. That is a joke. A myth. Indeed, it is the most ever posted by an away team in the Premier League, dating back to 2003 when Opta first started caring about numbers.
Granted, none of them felt particularly easy to score. But still, 37 attempts on goal is a madness. At least one of them would ordinarily find the net. Perhaps one takes a deflection and goes in. Maybe another bounces over the line after smashing against both posts.
I would’ve been annoyed if Núñez hadn’t scored with our 36th and 37th efforts on goal, no doubt. But as frustrating as it would’ve been, the display would’ve ultimately acted as an indicator that we’re just fine, regardless of our recent run of ‘bad’ form.
We’ve now amassed at least 22 shots in each of our last four away matches in the Premier League. A total of 106 attempts, to be precise. An average of 26.5 per match. You don’t post those numbers unless you’re brilliant.
And yet, if Núñez hadn’t scored with attempt number 36, there would’ve been a meltdown. All hell would’ve broken loose. Because football is painted as a results game, not a process game.
Arne Slot felt the need to address the topic in his post-match press conference, stating: “If we wouldn’t have scored in the last five minutes, the headlines would’ve been Liverpool drops points again and nobody would’ve told you about 37 shots. What a display.
“How many teams were able — against Brentford — to have 37 shots? This is the industry we work in. There is a lot of focus on if it doesn't go well and not as much on the fact if you have a great performance. We are in an industry where it's about winning and losing.”
A great quote, and one that reflects some of the issues attached to football coverage. So many opinions are entirely shaped by whether the ball goes in or not. Whether the finish was clinical. Results-based analysis.
And we don’t place anywhere near enough focus on everything else that happens across 90 minutes of intense competition. The stuff that will tell you far more about whether your team is good or not.
Think about your car. Let’s say you’ve been managing a few engine issues for a while. You’ve got some warning lights on your dashboard. But you ignore them and keep using the car. Cool.
You arrive at your destination sometimes, but you also break down a lot. So it’s essentially open to pure chance whether your journey will be successful on any given day. Sometimes, the car works. Sometimes, it doesn’t.
When the car gets you to your destination, that doesn’t mean it’s fixed, does it? The same issues are still present under the hood. And those concerns will keep stopping you from getting where you want to go. You got lucky today. You might not tomorrow.
The car won’t consistently run well until you fix the underlying issues. Until you open the bonnet, get rid of the bad stuff and install the good stuff. That’s when you’ll stop relying on pure fortune to get where you want to go.
Football is no different. Every week, managers talk about momentum and desire in their attempts to convince supporters that next week will be better, before facing another 13 shots and creating exactly the same amount for themselves at the opposite end.
The car is still broke. Sometimes you’ll win, sometimes you’ll be forced to call the RAC. You win games of football by posting two shots for every one created by your opponents. You win through domination. You win by creating 37 attempts on goal.
If Liverpool hadn’t beaten Brentford, it would’ve been a travesty. But one that would have depicted the unfair nature of football rather than hinting at any impending decline at Anfield.
I’ll leave you with this quote from one of my favourite books. The book has nothing to do with football, nor does the quote. But you know me. I’ll always find a way to relate everything back to the Reds.
‘Achieving a goal only changes your life for the moment. That's the counterintuitive thing about improvement. We think we need to change our results, but the results are not the problem. What we really need to change are the systems that cause those results. When you solve problems at the results level, you only solve them temporarily. In order to improve for good, you need to solve problems at the systems level. Fix the inputs, and the outputs will fix themselves.’
17 to go.
Atomic Habits?
Up the Process Reds
Finally got on your substack brother. Dig it man, and your podcast too. Thanks for the insight. I'll be consuming the wisdom on the regular. Up the Reds!