A Win Is a Win, Right?
What does a bad Liverpool performance look like?
Liverpool picked up yet another win on Saturday night. The Reds climbed to the top of the Premier League table after beating Wolves by two goals to one, but this was more of a grind than a spectacle.
I felt like I’d completed a task after watching the clash. Liverpool weren’t at the races compared to their usual level, but they got the job done. Three points is all that matters, and a win is a win, right?
So first of all, we don’t care about winning one game on this Substack. We care about winning the next ten. For that reason, we deal in performances, not results. To win a bunch of matches in a row, you need more than just luck. You need to deserve to win.
Everything goes back to probability. If you get probability on your side on a consistent basis, lots will have to go wrong for you to lose two games on the bounce.
What does getting probability on your side look like? Well, allow me to use my old favourite. If you’ve been following my Substack since the very start, apologies, because you’ll have already heard this one by now.
So imagine playing football against your best friend on your local five-a-side pitch. You take eight shots, and he takes 16. Now, also imagine his efforts are marginally closer to goal, whereas yours originate from slightly further out.
Who do you think would win? Alright, now imagine that same scenario happening 38 times over the course of a year. How many times do you think you’d defeat your friend?
And just to add an extra bit of injustice to the dynamic, in addition to your friend taking twice as many shots as you — and from better locations — he’s also just much better at striking the ball and making saves.
This is your recipe for success. Better players taking loads of shots from optimal locations without giving many opportunities away to worse players at the opposite end. If you establish that level of dominance every week, you really won’t lose very often.
So Saturday’s bout against Wolves felt bad at the time, but what did it actually look like in that probability world?
Well, in attack, Liverpool posted nine shots, and don’t forget, this was against the team at the very bottom of the division. That’s bad. In fact, the Reds haven’t created such a small amount since facing champions Manchester City at the Etihad last November. Jürgen Klopp’s outfit generated just eight attempts that day.
The value of the shots created against Wolves was good, though. Liverpool posted 2.5 xG at Molineux. Around 0.8 of that can be explained by the penalty won by Diogo Jota, but that still leaves roughly 1.7 xG, which isn’t incredible but is definitely enough to win a game of football depending on how much you gave away at the opposite end.
That brings us to the defence, which means it’s time for some positivity. So Liverpool only faced eight shots against Wolves, with those worth around 0.6 xG in total. And it’s worth noting that Rayan Aït-Nouri’s goal — an open net from less than six yards out — accounts for about 0.4 of that.
In other words, Wolves created absolutely nothing. Zilch. Nada. It might have felt like Liverpool weren’t great without possession, but the shots behind the game suggest Wolves were very lucky to score.
If Ibrahima Konaté hadn’t showcased that moment of madness in which he essentially forgot he was a professional footballer, the Reds would have almost certainly kept another clean sheet.
So what’s my point? Well, every team has a floor. Southampton probably have the lowest floor in the Premier League this season. If everything goes wrong in an isolated game for the Saints, they could genuinely lose about 7-0.
Liverpool didn’t play that well at Molineux. They didn’t shine against Nottingham Forest earlier this month, either. But across those two games, Arne Slot’s men faced a combined total of just 13 shots worth about one goal in xG terms.
That’s a high floor. If it feels like you can’t possibly perform any worse, yet you’re still barely giving away anything to the opposition, you must be pretty good.
The wasn’t the case for Liverpool in their final two years under Klopp. A bad game for the Reds involved conceding far too many clear-cut openings, with Alisson Becker tasked with managing a one-on-one duel every ten minutes.
Slot’s Liverpool look more bulletproof — even when they aren’t at the races — although much of that strength could stem from their relatively kind start to the season.
There’s this concept of an ugly win in football. If a team doesn’t perform yet still manages to win, that is often regarded as the sign of a champion in England.
I don’t necessarily disagree, but it really depends. There are two different types of ugly win in my book, and one is far more healthy and sustainable than the other.
The first essentially involves getting battered from pillar to post, but winning due to a moment of individual brilliance, or sheer good fortune. For example, Manchester United faced Aston Villa last season, and they gave away 23 shots worth 2.4 xG while creating 17 efforts worth 1.8 xG themselves.
The Red Devils won 2-1, but that’s bad ugly. The kinda ugly that, if demonstrated again the following week, would likely result in a loss. I find it a lot harder to celebrate victories like that.
Good ugly looks different. It usually consists of creating less than usual, but not giving away much, either. In those games, despite not meeting your usual standard, you’re still managing to refrain from relying on luck to get you out of jail. You want an example? Liverpool against Wolves on the weekend.
Take care of the result with your performance as best you can. Don’t rely on the element of chance. Don’t let the result get determined by the flip of a coin. Don’t do what United do.
Before concluding this post, I would like to add some extra context. I’m happy with the win because Liverpool — kinda — deserved it based on what they created versus what they conceded.
Indeed, I ran a quick 10,000 simulations of the Wolves game based on the shots that both teams created. Liverpool lost 1,300 times. So in simple terms, the Reds had a 13 per cent chance of losing at Molineux based on their performance. You’d happily take those odds every week.
But, I thought Wolves were pretty terrible in the final third. Like, they had no idea how to penetrate the penalty box and — for the most part — just didn’t possess enough quality to take advantage of Liverpool’s unexpected coffee break.
Against a team with better individuals, and more belief and confidence, I’m not sure the Reds escape with three points, which is interesting once taking a glance at who we’re scheduled to face after the next international break.
We’re learning more about Liverpool every week. Things don’t always click, and when that happens, the absolute least you can do is ensure that your defence remains watertight. That’s how you win ugly.
How do you gain an edge in football? By getting the odds in your favour. By playing weighted dice. By flipping a double-headed coin.
Saturday was a strong defensive performance in our defensive third. However, in our attacking third, Wolves figured out our press after a slow start (highest PPDA of the 6 matches) & we struggled to keep the ball consistently so it wasn't a dominant performance. The attack was poor but, in all of the other matches save Forest, we created & scored >2 np xG ... so chalk that up as a bad day at the office.
While the results have been great, Arne (thankfully) isn't buying into the media hype. At every press conference, he is consistent in mentioning that our opponents to date have been inferior & a bad representation of opponent strength over the entirety of this season. United was the only opponent that finished in the top half last season & we know what a dumpster fire they are currently.
Last season, we pummeled the bottom half, winning 17 of 20 matches (53/60 points). Where you can argue we "lost the league", wasn't against them but rather against Villa, Spurs, Chelsea, United, West Ham & Palace. After the next break, we face a bunch of those sides: Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), & Villa (H). Sandwiched between those league matches, we've got 2 tough UCL matches and a tough away at Brighton in the league cup. Following these fixtures, we'll have a true gauge of our potential for this season and the transition to Arne from Jurgen.
Cant believe Ibou was actually lobbying for the MOM award. He was genuinely upset. He was excellent before his moment of madness, but became quite nervous, almost rattled after the error. Then that crucial clearance happened. Would you have given it to him Josh?