Broken Liverpool
Four losses in a row. Where do we even start?
We talk about process quite a lot on this Substack. My niche — I mean, it really shouldn’t be a niche, but here we are — is analysis based on performances, rather than results.
Focus on the stuff going into the machine, not the outcomes coming out the other end. That’s how to determine whether you’re good or not. That’s how to determine whether silverware or relegation is on the cards.
There’s an example I always provide when I’m having this conversation. My long-term subscribers will have heard this one before, so apologies in advance, but for those who are new to this Substack, here it goes.
So imagine you’re playing football against your best friend on your local five-a-side pitch. You take eight shots, and he takes 16. Now, imagine his efforts are marginally closer to goal, whereas yours originate from slightly further out.
Who do you think would win? Alright, now imagine that same scenario happening 38 times over the course of a year. How many times do you think you’d defeat your friend, or win two on the bounce?
And just to add an extra bit of injustice to the mix, in addition to your friend taking twice as many shots as you — and from better locations — let’s also imagine he’s just better at striking the ball and making saves than you are.
Well, that’s how you win leagues. Not by scoring late winners, no. Not by showing more passion or being first on Match of the Day. You win leagues by getting probability in your favour every single week.
Liverpool struck that dynamic last season. Across their 38 bouts, they averaged 16.8 shots and 10.1 shots faced, with those numbers looking even healthier before the Reds claimed the title with four games to go, at which point they kinda stopped caring.
Arne Slot’s men regularly created more shots and xG than their opponents last term. And they had Alisson Becker in goal and Mohamed Salah up front, too. A recipe for 90 points. Not rocket science.
Well, on Sunday afternoon, Liverpool lost their fourth — yes, fourth — match on the spin. Indeed, that hasn’t happened for 11 years. Bad. I’m on my third bottle of wine as I type these words.
Manchester United won at Anfield for the first time since 2016. And they weren’t even that good. The result was more to do with Liverpool being all over the place.
After the clash, Slot was keen to highlight the finishing issues encountered by his forwards as a reason behind the result. He was right to do so. As bad as the whole thing seemed at the time, the Reds created 19 shots worth a total of around 2.8 xG.
In other words, you should score more than once. Cody Gakpo hit the post at least 14 times. Alexander Isak missed a one-on-one with Senne Lammens. Salah had his share of openings, too. But just one goal.
It's been a recurring theme of late, with Slot keen to point it out. One goal from 2.1 xG against Crystal Palace. No goals from 1.7 xG against Galatasaray. One goal from 1.9 xG against Chelsea.
The Reds boss can’t put the ball in the net himself. His players need to step up.
But here’s the thing. You can moan about finishing all you want. Do it until the cows come home. But until you’ve got probability on your side as a unit again, nothing else really matters.
All of your match-specific analysis is redundant unless you’ve got a degree of dominance over your opponents. That’s priority number one. Establish the level of control required to create twice as much as whoever you’re facing.
If you’re doing that and still dropping points, cool, talk about finishing. But Slot lost that edge in the summer. So far this season, Liverpool have mostly been flipping coins every week and hoping for heads.
Without considering the result of each match, I’m not sure the Reds truly deserved to beat Bournemouth, Newcastle United, Arsenal, Palace, Galatasaray, Chelsea, Manchester United and — perhaps — Everton based on their performances.
And what happened? Four wins and four losses. Coin flips. Vulnerable to the element of chance. That’s the sport Liverpool are playing right now. The only irregularity has been the weird order of events.
Slot’s outfit should never have won seven on the bounce. And they shouldn’t have lost four in a row, either. But all things considered, seven wins and four losses in all competitions sounds about right based on what we’ve witnessed to date.
Arsenal, by contrast, look inevitable. I know you don’t like watching them attack, but here’s their xG conceded in each Premier League match since the start of the season: 1.5, 0.2, 0.5, 0.2, 0.9, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4. That’s dominance. They’ve shipped one open-play goal in total. Mikel Arteta has got himself a weighted coin.
Liverpool need to get back to a place of control, and fast. When matches get played on their terms. Conceding the first goal — which has happened in each of the last four games — won’t allow that to happen.
Slot keeps having to introduce a load of 5-foot-6 forwards to get back on level terms, resulting in those guys eventually scoring an equaliser before then conceding a final killer blow from a late aerial ball.
I admire his desire to change things. I admire his willingness to be bold in a tactical sense, too. He shouldn’t be criticised for that. The part he needs to fix is what comes before. The bit that later forces him to go a bit mental with the tactics board.
You aren’t unlucky if you lose four consecutive games, you’re probably just not that good. Liverpool’s problem clearly isn’t talent, but the balance of the team is off. Slot and Richard Hughes are looking guiltier by the week.
Two extremely expensive strikers, you can only play one. A flying full-back pairing with no inverted option on either side. An ageing superstar who doesn’t defend, yet can’t buy a goal. The list goes on.
Florian Wirtz kinda replaced Dominik Szoboszlai in the summer. Well, he started on the bench, and the latter ended the game at right-back, while new right-back Jeremie Frimpong played as a forward. I mean, if that’s not indicative of a messy group, I don’t know what is.
It feels like the composition of the squad is negatively impacting Slot’s tactics right now. Like, you’ll notice Alexis Mac Allister played high against Manchester United. That was Slot’s attempt to pin Matthijs de Ligt and stop him from stepping out to regain possession in defensive situations.
There’s nothing wrong with that idea in isolation. It flattened Ruben Amorim’s back five. But with Mac Allister high alongside Szoboszlai, and with Conor Bradley and Milos Kerkez as your full-back duo in the same team, that’s probably a bit too much offensive intent, with nobody naturally inclined to sit.
Overall, rather than suggesting that Slot has suddenly lost all of his tactical acumen overnight, I think many of Liverpool’s issues are stemming from the make-up of the squad.
His degree of input on the summer window remains to be seen, but finding a platform to allow everyone to thrive at once is proving to be difficult. Give him time. He’s tried removing Wirtz from the team. Two losses, so that didn’t help.
What next?
Time for difficult lineup choices. Past years’ performances as a factor - out the window.
Squad make up is undoubtedly an issue. Perhaps Dan Kennet's prediction that it will take until December for the team to click is correct. For now, the summer transfers seem misplaced. A DM, centre back and tricky left winger seem like a better use of the Isak money.
However the spine of the team seems weaker this season. Konate's form has spiralled. Macca and Isak aren't properly match fit. Gravenberch seems like what he is, an 8 playing as a 6. Gakpo then refuses to ever pass to his overlapping full back.
Add to this, the only players approaching being in form , namely Jones, Chiesa and Ekitike, can't buy a start.
Slot seems to want to try and force the current team into form, albeit being willing to drop Wirtz. We saw last season he can be stubborn. Abiding by Virgil's words and staying humble by starting Chiesa, Ekitike, Jones and maybe Gomez for the next few games would feel like a sensible next move.