Clown Market
How are Liverpool supposed to move in this place?
We’re in a funny place at the moment. A few years ago, Ian Graham explained in his book — How to Win the Premier League — that Liverpool eventually reached a point whereby they intentionally avoided the transfer market as a subtle means of gaining an edge over their competitors.
The market was that daft and unpredictable — with one in two transfers generally failing — that Jürgen Klopp almost benefited from the Reds not getting involved in the circus that surrounded them.
‘In a game where the average success rate is 50 per cent, refusing to play unless you have a good reason to can be a good strategy for success,’ Graham wrote.
Those were the days.
Well, right now, it’s pretty obvious that Richard Hughes has no choice but to play. And at a time when the market seems more insane than ever. It’s early days, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like the current state of the Premier League.
This week, Tottenham Hotspur — who finished 17th — essentially agreed to pay £100m for Sandro Tonali. Manchester City dedicated £116m to Elliot Anderson. Chelsea want £75m for Malo Gusto. Like, what on earth is going on?
Even the smart tactics that reaped rewards just a few years ago no longer bear fruit. Jan Paul van Hecke was down to the final year of his contract at Brighton and Hove Albion. That would usually result in a reduced price, but no. Spurs still paid £52m. He’s the 16th-most expensive defender ever.
Mateus Fernandes has just been relegated. Again, that sort of thing would usually produce a bargain. But no, Spurs paid £85m for him. More than three times as much as Liverpool paid for a relegated version of Gini Wijnaldum in 2016. Inflation, I know. But come on.
Premier League dealmakers were so stupid in those days that Michael Edwards could drift under the radar exploiting inefficiencies with ease, while his competitors wasted time having money fights. Nobody knew what to do with the riches being afforded to them.
Nowadays, it’s much harder. Every Premier League club is used to having wealth, and plenty of them have learnt from their past mistakes, with many mid-table sides growing increasingly shrewd in recent times.
They don’t need to sell. They’re aware of the need to tie down their best performers. They’re getting better at replacing their stars. And they’re much better at taking calculated gambles versus the days of begging at the feet of heavyweights for some spare change.
Bournemouth then would thank their lucky stars for a hand-me-down version of Phil Neville. Bournemouth now are signing teenage wonderkids direct from Brazil, and helping them become international starters inside six months.
Paris Saint-Germain have clearly observed the chaos in England from a distance, consequently placing a fee on Bradley Barcola’s head — according to reports — that is greater than Anderson’s mental £116m price. Finding value at the moment is trickier than ever.
It begs the question what on earth Liverpool are supposed to do. Hughes needs players, and he needs them now. It’s reasonable to suggest the Reds need a right-back, centre-back, midfielder and two attackers at present, and that’s without anyone leaving.
But given the extent of the prices being touted — with once-stupid clubs now holding all of the cards at the negotiating table — the Reds almost have to fill all of their voids without shopping in their own country. Unless they want to pay through the nose, that is.
All of the desirable options seem to play for clubs who are really smart. Funny that, isn’t it? Like Bournemouth, Brighton and PSG. If you want anyone from those guys, you’re going to have to pay for your stupidity. Because they’re covered. They’re cool. They don’t need you.
This sort of thing is why Liverpool signed Víctor Muñoz. A player from a relegation-threatened Spanish side with a release clause. I’m pleased with his capture, but how much he moves the needle, I’m not sure.
I also think the current landscape half explains Arne Slot’s departure. The ex-Reds boss spoke about the future in his final few press conferences, reassuring supporters that next season would be different on the condition that Liverpool had a good window this summer.
