Do Data Scientists Hate Wingers?
Arne Slot will be Liverpool's next manager, but his tactical approach could clash with the lack of wingers at Anfield.
So as I start writing this post, I’m expecting more of a think piece as opposed to one with a definitive conclusion. This thought is inspired by my recent post on Darwin Núñez, as well as Liverpool’s impending appointment of Arne Slot as Jürgen Klopp’s replacement.
In that piece on our enigmatic Uruguayan, I used a quote from Ian Graham to offer an insight into the line of thinking associated with recruiting attacking players using data.
From an interview with ESPN, for those who missed it:
“A scout or a coach would say, ‘Why do we like this forward?’ His analytics team would respond, ‘He takes loads of really good shots.’ The scout or coach would counter, ‘Yeah, but does he drive inside enough? Does he bring his teammates into play enough?’
‘But we're playing them up front,’ Graham said. ‘He takes loads of good quality shots. There is literally nothing else to say. All other arguments, they're second-order effects compared to this. But people love to mystify and bring more and more factors into play. A use of the data is just to say: This is the important thing and we might be wrong about it — we sometimes are wrong — but you have to come up with some really good arguments against this one really important thing.’”
So I generally like this way of thinking. Again, it goes back to that ability to cut through the noise and focus on what matters. What is the primary responsibility of any attacking player? To score goals. You can think deeper all you want, but an alien would be able to answer this one after watching the sport for five minutes.
That reality perhaps explains why as football has evolved, attacking players — particularly those who play on the flanks — have started to drive inwards more and more over the past decade or so, simply because the goal is in the middle of the pitch.
You generally don’t want your offensive players running towards the corner flag. You naturally want them heading towards goal, before ideally shooting and impacting the scoreline. In today’s game, everything is being funnelled towards the penalty spot.
Upon inspection of the offensive options currently at Liverpool, I think the shot-driven approach to recruiting forwards is evidenced by most of the talents in the squad.
Take Diogo Jota, for example. We all love him, and that’s because after going missing for 75 minutes, he tends to score an important goal to give his team the lead. Or maybe he’ll provide Liverpool with a two-goal cushion so that we can finally relax.
The Portuguese international is a relatively tricky and unpredictable player, and his connecting with others is decent as well, but above all else, he’s a forward who gets good shots. In fact, of his 41 attempts in the Premier League this term, only three have originated from outside the penalty box.
Núñez isn’t that different. He’s probably more limited in terms of his all-round game, but again, at the heart of his skill set is getting good shots in great locations. Don’t forget, nobody in Europe’s big five leagues averages more attempts on a per-90 basis than he does, level with Kylian Mbappé.
As for Mohamed Salah, he’s excellent at lots of things. His ability to play the final pass has always been underrated, for me. Again, though, his staple is shots. He was recently labelled as Liverpool’s best finisher by Klopp himself, and he’s renowned for getting 20 goals per season.
So what am I getting at here? Stay with me. I’ve done a fair bit of homework on Slot over the last ten days, and lots of his approach in attack seems to revolve around presenting his wide players with favourable situations to maximise.
It all feels very Pep Guardiola, to be honest. Overload the middle of the park, force your opponents to do exactly the same in order to cope, and then pass the ball to your dribblers in space so they can make use of the one-on-one situations that have materialised in the wide areas.
If the forward in question is a solid dribbler, he’ll probably beat his man before finding the byline and hitting a cutback towards the penalty spot. Slot likes wide players who do this, just like Guardiola.
That explains why Manchester City signed Jérémy Doku last summer. For Rennes last season, the Belgian starlet completed 96 dribbles, which was more than every player in Europe’s big five leagues except Vinicius Júnior on 112 and Lionel Messi on 102. And guess what? Those two players amassed over twice as many minutes as him.
Doku is one of the most dangerous dribblers in the world. Certainly when it comes to engaging in one-on-one duels with your opposite number, he’s a nightmare for any full-back.
Slot would probably enjoy working with Doku given his approach to attacking at Feyenoord, but here’s the curious thing. This is merely an educated guess, but I don’t think Liverpool would have ever signed Doku.
You’re on the edge of your seat when he’s got the ball, but if you’re playing him up front, as Graham would put it, he’s probably not doing enough when it comes to the stuff that really matters.
Of every player in Europe’s big five leagues to play at least 900 minutes of football last term, Doku ranked 320th for shots per 90, and as for his non-penalty xG, it was about the same as Bournemouth’s Philip Billing.
This season, he’s represented Guardiola. Doku is playing for the best team in the world under the best manager of all time, and he’s scored three times in the Premier League this season from 1,456 minutes of action.
Now, I realise that Doku offers other perks, and his output likely stems from the tactical role that he’s been expected to fulfil, but Liverpool are just far more obsessed with shooters at the business end of the pitch to be investing in a player like that.
Now we’ve arrived at the conundrum at hand. Slot likes to create the same one-on-one situations as Guardiola, but none of Liverpool’s forwards are that good at dribbling because in the data, if you’re focusing on the most important aspect of being an attacker, dribbling doesn’t technically matter that much.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Distance Covered to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.