replacing Arne with Iraola is a tough one to understand and this decision, along with a few other recent ones, have me questioning the club leadership for the first time since 2016
this decision seems based on the "mood" of those outside the club as Pearce reported ... if so, it's a concern that this could be a slippery slope (see Man U post Ferguson)
what's changed from May 25 to May 30 to cause club leadership to make this decision? ... none of what Pearce reports was "new news" ... if the reports are accurate, why not let him go on Monday the 25th?
my biggest concern is in the decision making ... while I admire him & will support him 100% after he arrives, Iraola is not a proven upgrade on Arne ... no titles, no experience with big player egos, or UCL, or implementing heavy metal with a match every 3 days and when u r the favorite
there's also no apparent accountability for the decisions Edwards/Hughes made or didn't make that gave Arne a crap hand to play ... Mo's extension, selling Lucho, not landing Guehi and a few other recruitment decisions
lastly, it's a shitty way to treat people ... let Arne believe he's getting a chance to the point where he makes comments to the press to that effect and initiates hiring a colleague ... leave Arne to be the sole public face of the club, taking the blame for decisions not made by him ... what elite manager is gonna want this job? ... what promising manager will want to stay once he's proven himself?
the track record of Gordon & Edwards is impressive ... always some short-term pain but they delivered better than all but City, Real Madrid & perhaps Bayern and did it without spending more than they earn ... that track record was based on decisions that made long-term sense ... this doesn't feel that way
I don’t believe for a second this has only been in the works for a week.
Yes that’s what’s been briefed, yes there were no leaks… but the underlying data, if not the visual evidence, has been against slots tenure for most of this season.. and not trending better.
If you look at all the best run Sporting director/head coach models.. it is all about planning in advance and having the next head coach lined up for when yours gets poached or sacked.
Don’t forgot.. FSG knew about Klopp leaving for months before we did. Hughes himself handed in his notice months before Edwards was even reappointed and when Edwards was announced.. suddenly Hughes was conveniently notice free.. no compensation, no gardening leave.
Even all our signings last year.. all of them have confirmed they were talking to Liverpool at least 6months before bids went in.. Jacquet has just said the same.
You do not undermine the manager or the team by briefing or leaking that he will be replaced.. and maybe the desire was 100% to back and Iraola was the contingency… but it’s more likely this contingency has been in place since November, definitely during that terrible run.. and as the season drew to an end the contingency became the reality.
It’s not a shitty way to treat slot. They let him finish the season; didn’t brief against him, didn’t undermine him or sack him midway through etc etc
Why wait until Saturday to announce it if it’s already been in the works?
What has changed about the underlying factors of the decision?
If Iraola was your guy, he was available for free and Hughes has a relationship and, as you suggest, this could have fixed well in advance of end of season.
Weird timing of the decision aside, the decision itself is a bet, and not one with high confidence … Iraola is a promising coach and he’s got my support but I didn’t think Gordon / Edwards were the type to believe that changing the manager is a fix for the kinds of issues we have and had
You don’t want to undermine a manager in a vital run in where CL football was not secured. Why risk it.
Why sack immediately after the season has finished? Bit disrespectful and unnecessary unless you had to announce the new guy immediately.
And Iraola may be the preferred contingency but I am sure he is just one…
It’s not like a situation where we have emotional driven ego owners/directors who got annoyed at slots press conference, attitude etc and just sacked him.
We lost so many games in November/ December that contingencies had to be in place.. even the unbeaten run was frankly rubbish.
We’ve all been talking about it all season.. the data has been terrible.. you’d be mad to think there hasn’t been plans in place.
.. there was nothing to gain by announcing anything or moving until you are ready to move.
I don’t know why this week, Saturday not Friday or Tuesday..
But Liverpool running all their data, talking to agents, putting feelers out… and Iraola taking this job in two days of talks from a standing start this week..
Stephen, I think the decision was made a while ago, it was the announcement that waited until Saturday.
As for why, my best guess is they wanted things to calm down to make it appear they actually did an end of season review and they may have actually given Slot an opportunity to "walk away" mutually to maintain some sort of lofty dignity or be "sacked" and take his payout for his final year. Either way, I agree with JA that this was decided well before hand.
And data without context is useless … look at the XI and squad for our run-in … if you removed the 3 best forwards from any team, the best models would predict a drop in chances, shots and goals … which is what happened
Klopp beat Barcelona without our best players and won the league cup with kids. Etc etc.
This season, slot lost or drew against promoted teams, bottom teams, teams on generationally bad runs of form.. team with no confidence..
We collapsed again and again with no solutions.
Most importantly, under Klopp there was always a style, an identity, intensity, a will to win, drive, fight, belief… that disappeared entirely.
The data *and* the context was terrible against slot… and the fans.
I never want to see a manager sacked.. but I saw absolutely zero way they could continue with slot… but I was responsible for finding a better replacement, or one who I genuinely believed could get better results with this squad..
The run in just reinforced that.
This isn’t a snap decision.
Maybe the point of the review last week was to have the problem, the evidence/reasons, and the solution/next course of action all in place so it could get final sign off and happen..
But no chance they were 100% going with slot and changed their mind last week.
We seen in transfers and managers.. they won’t move unless they believe they have a better option ready to go. They don’t sign players unless they think they are better than what they have etc
There’s been no reports that he’s lost the players … besides Mo (the less said the better on him) and, even if he had, the players have all save a few let the supporters down this season … they’re my guys and I’ll back them to improve but, if they think Arne was the only reason for this seasons results, then we have bigger problems… they shouldn’t be down on Arne, they should look in the mirror
It’s a good thing there are no reports.. not like many dressing rooms when things are going bad.
And I agree the players need to look at themselves
However…
This is elite level sport.
Part of the managers job is to motivate the players and get that total buy in and commitment and belief in their tactics and knowledge and ability to get wins and is that what you were seeing?
The coach, manager, has to make both the players and the fans believe..
I guess that’s where we have different views … mine is that Arne DID get the players to buy in last season … and they won the league
what changed? … I won’t rehash it here … let’s just say a LOT changed and my view is that any manager would have struggled to lead a group through that much change …
I don’t think that replacing a league-winner with an unproven (however promising) manager fixes the issues
Moreover, there are few if any elite managers who would have stayed if told we were selling Lucho and not reinforcing at CB
If true, that rationale for the timing makes sense … it’s unorthodox bc most happen the day after the season ends but it reduces my worry that the “mood” was a major factor in the decision
Stephen - I think it really comes down to risk and how you approach it. Yes, hiring Iraola is a risk based on his unproven track record. But retaining Slot for another year that trended downward the whole way and was losing the fanbase is also a risk. Taking the first risk is a proactive, aggressive risk. Sticking with Slot is a conservative, staid risk.
I think keeping Slot and the impacts it would have on the fans, on the academy, on the squad, and ultimately on results was the much bigger risk.
Hello. A corner of sanity this Substack thank you Josh. In advance a warning - adult content !- It’s worth adding more context to Slots departure. Apologies if in the wrong place. Slot won the league for Liverpool. Then Diogo Jota was lost. Injuries of Leoni, Isak, Bradley, Frimpong, Allison, Ekitike. Out of sorts Konate. Salah numbers falling off a cliff and his comments worse, undermining Slot, big ego acting bigger than the club. Fading slower Virgil. The most biased referee decisions in the league (see Tomkins Times data, not opinion, objective data driven fact) having a direct negative effect on points gained. And a too large proportion of the fan base doing their best to imitate Arsenal fans. Booing at Anfield. YNWA is a lie after last season. Slot’s experience supports this view. Sadly the fume and entitlement surrounding Liverpool belittles the experience of being a fan and belittles the club as an institution.
So in this context it’s not hard to imagine Iraola has a big task ahead. His model needs runners. Youth. Fitness. Belief. Across 60 games. 2-3 days a week. It needs Anfield to accept a learning curve. Even if he succeeds, gets the new players he surely needs. They buy into his model. Reffing bias is likely to continue.
This is great insight Josh. I'm liking a lot of what I hear about Iraola but I keep reading back those quotes from Antoine Semenyo about his training sessions. If we don't add real depth to this squad, I can't see us having any players left by December! I'm hoping our medical team and sports science department can mitigate things somewhat, but the combination of his training, style of play and games three days a week is something I have real concerns about.
The reality is slots +1 was most effective when we couldn’t back with Trent to feed Salah/diaz with perfect long passes… and it made sense because Salah couldn’t press properly or track back.
But without Trent to not only progress the ball 40yards in and instant but to make that one-pass-progression a goal threat..
The other main progression was often Diaz carrying like a Duracell bunny…
But having Trent meant teams could not push up and pin us back because as soon as they did Salah would be in behind them so they *had* to drop back…
No Trent they could just ignore Salah as a threat and use him as a weakness (as some confessed)
This season.. Sitting back with an extra man left us unable to progress the ball up the pitch quickly to counter, struggling to progress at all, struggling to get out of our half, and by the time we did they opposition defence had reset and it was a block.
Klopps “pressing is the playmaker” had been replaced with “playmaker is our progression” (&play maker)
Suddenly none of it works.. we couldn’t exert pressure in the transitions from defence to attack or attack to defence.. we couldn’t pen teams in their third, couldn’t get out of ours, couldn’t profit from their mistakes..
That’s kind of the identity issue.
People so often treat defence and attack as separate… but high press is part of the attack.. and sitting deep/keeping men back won’t help you defend better if you can’t counter effectively..
people point to March of last year when it all went wrong. That was when Trent hurt his ankle against PSG and only played a handful of games for Liverpool again. Trent may have been the jenga piece.
Even if you look at other games.. eg Newcastle.. Trent came off the bench and changed the game.
If you look at a lot of big games early last season… arsenal, city.. Trent set up the goal with insane only-Trent passes..
As Dan Kennard said on Josh’s podcast last summer… last season, Trent had the second highest xThreat of any player in europes top 5 leagues.. 0.1 behind Cherki, playing in France.
Trent was miles ahead of anyone else in the EPL. Salah was 2nd or 3rd and Trent supplied him….
Trent also had the highest %of his teams progressive and key passes of any player in the league.. ie Bruno Fernandez was second..
Ie not only were Liverpool more dependant on Trent last season than any team in the league was for any individual player but his passes were also the most threatening of any player by a distance..
The difference between Salah last season and this wasn’t that his legs went.. it was that Trent went.
And without Trent’s passing; you cannot carry salah’s defending.
Also - just to note - those of us who had pointed out for years that the Liverpool system wasn’t built to hide Trent, he was actually the most exposed behind Salah.. well *ahem* with no Trent teams could just completely overwhelm our right hand side without having to worry or take the risk of instant counters into the space they left.
🤷♂️ but hey. To me the biggest questions this season were always how we replaced the progressive passing, how we would feed Salah in the way he needed.. and how we would make the Salah staying high/not tracking tactic work.. and unfortunately the manager didn’t find a way to do any of them..
That’s why a return to high intensity system manager makes a lot of sense where a more possession based one has struggled to find a solution in the modern EPL
Like you said on your video with James Allcott, the initial feeling post-Arne has to be excitement. The key is providing him with the right personnel however.
The wingers are obviously massively important, the most important, but I also feeling that finding the Tyler Adams and Alex Scott equivalents are a close second. Tyler Adams being your 6 to break it up if the press is best is vital and a profile we are missing, as well as an Alex Scott who is brave in the build-up but also has the physical ability to get from build-up (defensive box) to box crashing the other end.
It would be great if you wrote a piece on finding them in the market, like you previously did with centre-backs not long ago.
I want a real 6! Josh if you do a profiles special on midfielders, could you also look out for a profile like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, a guy who has all the physical tools but is maybe just being misused or in a squad that does not fit his toolset? One of the biggest Klopp what-ifs for me has always been what if Ox doesn't get clattered and completely destroy his knee. He profiled so incredibly for a Klopp 8. Finding a misused, underpriced physical beast like him would be great for Iraola!
It's only now I am realising how relieved that the torture of last season and watching our team has come to and end with the dismissal of Slot.
I was there when we beat Spurs to clinch the title a year ago and will be forever grateful to Slot but yes there is now relief and a very special ingredient, giddy excitement.
It feels good that we don't have all the answers, it feels good that we don't have a proven manager and it feels damn good that we will be jumping back on a rollercoaster.
I hope bravery doesn't turn out to be suicide.....let's go !!
Ultimately, it will all live and die by recruitment. We can change as many coaches as we want. We can identify all the talent in the world. But if we do not improve our decision architecture, we will fail.
The model is not the issue. The issue is how decisions are made. That does not mean people need sacking. It means they need to ensure every decision stacks in the right order, weighs opportunity cost correctly, and focuses relentlessly on the pain points that hurt the team most.
Football clubs rarely fail because they cannot identify good players. They fail because they cannot prioritise. The challenge is not finding ten talented footballers. The challenge is identifying which of those ten solves the most important problem at that specific moment.
A coach can influence the floor and the ceiling. But the size of the jump, and the severity of the drop, is ultimately dictated by recruitment.
It’s exciting, I still believe there is risk in the decision. But there was risk in keeping slot too.
As you keep repeating, lots of squad issues to fix.
With konate gone , you would think an easy solution for depth would be to undercut spurs for Senesi? Could take him on low wages , a lot lower than konate was looking for. You make the point that additions should be world class or have world class potential.
But if they aren’t going to go after someone like van hecke, than surely senesi simply as an addition for depth, esp given he knows iraolas tactics , would be shrewd whilst leoni/jacquet build experience the next two years and vvd aging.
Personally I think the way that Iraola plays being visually very press-heavy gives perhaps too much of an impression that there's not much work done re breaking down teams. Obviously the *perception* of Bournemouth is that they're a "small team" but last year they barely finished below us. While I do think teams will naturally play differently based on perception I think coaches encourage tactics that will work against their opponents and if they thought Bournemouth were as bad at attacking a low block as Slot's Liverpool, they would have defended in a low-block and stifled them more. Bournemouth were probably THE outlier team in the league, hardly like other teams didn't know and just played naively because they thought they were beneath them. Plus it's not that easy to stop an effective counter-press if the team can do it well, any clearance or deep cross from us is an opportunity to be a direct attack OR it can be a counter-press opportunity and there's not too much the opposition can do about that besides head/clear the ball back to you.
Also think we may be being unfair to Iraola in that he theoretically doesn't have the same level of technical players on his team - they aren't bad but in terms of the typical "build up" positions Senesi and Scott are good but we should have better players for that initial phase of unlocking. Might be the case that Iraola hasn't had the tools to unlock low-blocks before but he has ideas for that phase. Personally I'm pretty positive about him as a coaching prospect and think we are immediately improved.
My main worry is about recruitment because we evidently need a bunch of forwards to make any pressing system work and I personally don't believe the few forwards we have currently (Isak, Gakpo, Rio) actually suit the system. Think this really highlights the need for 3 signings with 2 being starter level imo. Then we need depth to allow players to get up to the required fitness/intensity levels (e.g. think a good idea to get starters to be as intense as poss for 60 and have subs who can play last 30 while we're working starters up to max intensity for 90) and we need depth that can start in cup competitions. Hoping Iraola will use Rio & Nyoni for this but we'll clearly need a bunch of squad players given likely outgoings. Think we realistically need 3 forwards (2 starting level), 1 or 2 midfielders (2 with 1 starter level if Curt & Mac go, 1 for depth if Curtis stays) and 1 or 2 defenders depending on how cooked Bradley's knee is (rumours are not great so suspect we'll need a starting RB and a depth CB but maybe if he's ok we can get by with a CB/RB utility guy.)
Lots to do for Hughes and Edwards this summer, for sure. I just hope they do a better job of finding players who fit in with what the manager wants and what the team needs than they did last summer.
Did they really miss though on what Slot wanted? Slot spent all summer talking about breaking down low blocks. Wirtz, Ekitike, Isak are all attacking players meant to beat defenses not lead a press. Isak and Hugo are VERY different from Darwin. Slot had to have some input on who the team bought.
As I have said before, we will play depending on how the opposition lets us play.
We are headed for a season of playing low block teams, home and away. Arsenal were successful with it and nearly won the champions league. Two teams stayed up playing it. Managers will copy it up and down the league.
The low block will just hit it long to clear. They will not play fancy out from the back. The Guardiola era is dead. Then you are playing a game of numbers.If you are too aggressive that makes it 1vs1 at the back.
A lot of our goals we conceded were gained from winning the second balls . This is where the press fails against the long ball If we have to fill that space up with midfielders to win the second ball. The midfield cannot press because they need to cover and then they are stretched between midfield and attack. PSG had that problem vs Arsenal. Their gifted midfielders could not support the attack quick enough.
We are headed back to possession based football and this is where the movement and the ability of the wingers/fullbacks to get past the block is important. PSG were trying to do it all the time especially vs Hincapie. But Arsenal put the centre forward into help at time. PSG never really created anything. Nobody can impose their high energy football on a low block.
It means Liverpool have to score first and early to bring them out and Liverpool have been poor at fast starts since the Klopp league trophy.
This is the concern for me is we are expecting high energetic pressing and the opposition know that and they won’t let it happen. Then what? Does Iraola have more flags in his cap? Does the Anfield fans have the patience? Does the players have the ability?
It is all well and good looking at Bournemouth but teams think they can get a point or even a win vs them. So the Bournemouth opponents do not low block as much and Bournemouth have more space.
As I have said Klopp faced it and failed to find a solution. Slot failed to find a solution. Can Iraola? I hope so but I am not sure since he only seems to have Bielsa way of playing and that failed for Leeds.
I find myself torn on Iraola, part of me is excited, but a bigger part of me feels like this is a step backwards, like we’re saying we want to be the plucky underdog who gets to win once in a while rather than the team that dominates. For me he’ll get the 1st season to implement his style, but then he has to genuinely compete for the title in season 2.
I believe Slot has a higher ceiling and if he’d been allowed to finish the transition we’d have seen a better brand of football next season
I feel the dearth of talent in the managerial space means risks are the only options. Even if you consider Arteta at Arsenal, his first managerial role, Maresca at Leicester or Kompany at Bayern all calculated risks for me but they are paying or paid off. You have to identify who has the potential to be the next Mourinho, Klopp, Pep etc. Enrique is the elder statesmen but he's only managed 2 clubs including PSG. What is key is buy in and unity, mainly from the players. This I think is what ultimately led to Slot being let go.
Given that he‘ll most likely play Wirtz and two midfielders, how do you see Iraola solve the issue that the two midfielders will be overloaded in most games?
In the clip, you said that the CB will follow his man into midfield, but he surely would want to avoid that with VVD, wouldn’t he?
The Netherlands play with a 3 with VVD in the middle. If a centre back presses into midfield then the back line is basically a 3, in which I expect VVD will remain in the middle. Whenever a centre back has pushed into midfield while VVD has been here it has been the other centre back, so I would expect that to continue.
On the back of my own question, I skipped through our last 4 games against Bournemouth. Last season Huijsen and Zabarnyi were following Szoboszlai and Salah everywhere, whereas this season Senesi stayed mostly in position while Hill was jumping. As compensation he had Kroupi following our right midfielder and Adli sticking close to our right back, creating overloads in the centre that way.
So a combination of Van Dijk and Senesi would be a challenge.
Hi Josh, another quality article. With Iraola now as good as confirmed and Konate gone, would you rethink any of your choices from the Redmen Director of Football challenge?
Good read and enjoy the video added to help explain. One thing I would see as advantage to where Klopp was is that the new manager has lived the devision for the last couple of years and will knows it’s football. No doubt he will already be thinking about being a more dominant team in possession and how to set up that way
Any view on who the midfield 2 is in a 4-2-3-1 and is it a risk to go with Gravenberch and Szoboszlai as the two, or do you think they are ideally suited? We saw under Slot that Gravenberch can work as a 6, but under Klopp saw that he isn't a runner. Would the demands of the Iraola system expect him to be more of a runner than an anchor?
I wouldn't be surprised to see Szoboszlai move on in the next 6 months if no new deal is agreed, so they stop losing prime aged players for nothing
I'm going 100% behind Iraola but ...
replacing Arne with Iraola is a tough one to understand and this decision, along with a few other recent ones, have me questioning the club leadership for the first time since 2016
this decision seems based on the "mood" of those outside the club as Pearce reported ... if so, it's a concern that this could be a slippery slope (see Man U post Ferguson)
what's changed from May 25 to May 30 to cause club leadership to make this decision? ... none of what Pearce reports was "new news" ... if the reports are accurate, why not let him go on Monday the 25th?
my biggest concern is in the decision making ... while I admire him & will support him 100% after he arrives, Iraola is not a proven upgrade on Arne ... no titles, no experience with big player egos, or UCL, or implementing heavy metal with a match every 3 days and when u r the favorite
there's also no apparent accountability for the decisions Edwards/Hughes made or didn't make that gave Arne a crap hand to play ... Mo's extension, selling Lucho, not landing Guehi and a few other recruitment decisions
lastly, it's a shitty way to treat people ... let Arne believe he's getting a chance to the point where he makes comments to the press to that effect and initiates hiring a colleague ... leave Arne to be the sole public face of the club, taking the blame for decisions not made by him ... what elite manager is gonna want this job? ... what promising manager will want to stay once he's proven himself?
the track record of Gordon & Edwards is impressive ... always some short-term pain but they delivered better than all but City, Real Madrid & perhaps Bayern and did it without spending more than they earn ... that track record was based on decisions that made long-term sense ... this doesn't feel that way
I don’t believe for a second this has only been in the works for a week.
Yes that’s what’s been briefed, yes there were no leaks… but the underlying data, if not the visual evidence, has been against slots tenure for most of this season.. and not trending better.
If you look at all the best run Sporting director/head coach models.. it is all about planning in advance and having the next head coach lined up for when yours gets poached or sacked.
Don’t forgot.. FSG knew about Klopp leaving for months before we did. Hughes himself handed in his notice months before Edwards was even reappointed and when Edwards was announced.. suddenly Hughes was conveniently notice free.. no compensation, no gardening leave.
Even all our signings last year.. all of them have confirmed they were talking to Liverpool at least 6months before bids went in.. Jacquet has just said the same.
You do not undermine the manager or the team by briefing or leaking that he will be replaced.. and maybe the desire was 100% to back and Iraola was the contingency… but it’s more likely this contingency has been in place since November, definitely during that terrible run.. and as the season drew to an end the contingency became the reality.
It’s not a shitty way to treat slot. They let him finish the season; didn’t brief against him, didn’t undermine him or sack him midway through etc etc
Why wait until Saturday to announce it if it’s already been in the works?
What has changed about the underlying factors of the decision?
If Iraola was your guy, he was available for free and Hughes has a relationship and, as you suggest, this could have fixed well in advance of end of season.
Weird timing of the decision aside, the decision itself is a bet, and not one with high confidence … Iraola is a promising coach and he’s got my support but I didn’t think Gordon / Edwards were the type to believe that changing the manager is a fix for the kinds of issues we have and had
Why announce it earlier? Who would it benefit.
You don’t want to undermine a manager in a vital run in where CL football was not secured. Why risk it.
Why sack immediately after the season has finished? Bit disrespectful and unnecessary unless you had to announce the new guy immediately.
And Iraola may be the preferred contingency but I am sure he is just one…
It’s not like a situation where we have emotional driven ego owners/directors who got annoyed at slots press conference, attitude etc and just sacked him.
We lost so many games in November/ December that contingencies had to be in place.. even the unbeaten run was frankly rubbish.
We’ve all been talking about it all season.. the data has been terrible.. you’d be mad to think there hasn’t been plans in place.
.. there was nothing to gain by announcing anything or moving until you are ready to move.
I don’t know why this week, Saturday not Friday or Tuesday..
But Liverpool running all their data, talking to agents, putting feelers out… and Iraola taking this job in two days of talks from a standing start this week..
yeah no chance.
Stephen, I think the decision was made a while ago, it was the announcement that waited until Saturday.
As for why, my best guess is they wanted things to calm down to make it appear they actually did an end of season review and they may have actually given Slot an opportunity to "walk away" mutually to maintain some sort of lofty dignity or be "sacked" and take his payout for his final year. Either way, I agree with JA that this was decided well before hand.
Totally agree it’s Iraola himself is massive bet.
Changing manager to me is the only solution.
Slot’s lost the confidence of fans and players and looked clueless to make any tactical or systemic changes that would work.
And, we are a data driven team and the data has always said attack attack attack. Take risks. (Ask Ian Graham)
Slots data has been terrible this season and he has been unable to get the team to attack..
And data without context is useless … look at the XI and squad for our run-in … if you removed the 3 best forwards from any team, the best models would predict a drop in chances, shots and goals … which is what happened
Yes context is everything..
However…
Klopp beat Barcelona without our best players and won the league cup with kids. Etc etc.
This season, slot lost or drew against promoted teams, bottom teams, teams on generationally bad runs of form.. team with no confidence..
We collapsed again and again with no solutions.
Most importantly, under Klopp there was always a style, an identity, intensity, a will to win, drive, fight, belief… that disappeared entirely.
The data *and* the context was terrible against slot… and the fans.
I never want to see a manager sacked.. but I saw absolutely zero way they could continue with slot… but I was responsible for finding a better replacement, or one who I genuinely believed could get better results with this squad..
The run in just reinforced that.
This isn’t a snap decision.
Maybe the point of the review last week was to have the problem, the evidence/reasons, and the solution/next course of action all in place so it could get final sign off and happen..
But no chance they were 100% going with slot and changed their mind last week.
We seen in transfers and managers.. they won’t move unless they believe they have a better option ready to go. They don’t sign players unless they think they are better than what they have etc
There’s been no reports that he’s lost the players … besides Mo (the less said the better on him) and, even if he had, the players have all save a few let the supporters down this season … they’re my guys and I’ll back them to improve but, if they think Arne was the only reason for this seasons results, then we have bigger problems… they shouldn’t be down on Arne, they should look in the mirror
It’s a good thing there are no reports.. not like many dressing rooms when things are going bad.
And I agree the players need to look at themselves
However…
This is elite level sport.
Part of the managers job is to motivate the players and get that total buy in and commitment and belief in their tactics and knowledge and ability to get wins and is that what you were seeing?
The coach, manager, has to make both the players and the fans believe..
I guess that’s where we have different views … mine is that Arne DID get the players to buy in last season … and they won the league
what changed? … I won’t rehash it here … let’s just say a LOT changed and my view is that any manager would have struggled to lead a group through that much change …
I don’t think that replacing a league-winner with an unproven (however promising) manager fixes the issues
Moreover, there are few if any elite managers who would have stayed if told we were selling Lucho and not reinforcing at CB
You wait until Saturday to make it the 2nd biggest story of the week not the first.
If true, that rationale for the timing makes sense … it’s unorthodox bc most happen the day after the season ends but it reduces my worry that the “mood” was a major factor in the decision
Doesn’t explain the rest of the concerns though
Stephen - I think it really comes down to risk and how you approach it. Yes, hiring Iraola is a risk based on his unproven track record. But retaining Slot for another year that trended downward the whole way and was losing the fanbase is also a risk. Taking the first risk is a proactive, aggressive risk. Sticking with Slot is a conservative, staid risk.
I think keeping Slot and the impacts it would have on the fans, on the academy, on the squad, and ultimately on results was the much bigger risk.
Hello. A corner of sanity this Substack thank you Josh. In advance a warning - adult content !- It’s worth adding more context to Slots departure. Apologies if in the wrong place. Slot won the league for Liverpool. Then Diogo Jota was lost. Injuries of Leoni, Isak, Bradley, Frimpong, Allison, Ekitike. Out of sorts Konate. Salah numbers falling off a cliff and his comments worse, undermining Slot, big ego acting bigger than the club. Fading slower Virgil. The most biased referee decisions in the league (see Tomkins Times data, not opinion, objective data driven fact) having a direct negative effect on points gained. And a too large proportion of the fan base doing their best to imitate Arsenal fans. Booing at Anfield. YNWA is a lie after last season. Slot’s experience supports this view. Sadly the fume and entitlement surrounding Liverpool belittles the experience of being a fan and belittles the club as an institution.
So in this context it’s not hard to imagine Iraola has a big task ahead. His model needs runners. Youth. Fitness. Belief. Across 60 games. 2-3 days a week. It needs Anfield to accept a learning curve. Even if he succeeds, gets the new players he surely needs. They buy into his model. Reffing bias is likely to continue.
Good luck Andoni you’re going to need it.
Good shout on the leaving curve but “supporters” (and now club leadership) have shown no patience for one, even with uncontrollable issues
This is great insight Josh. I'm liking a lot of what I hear about Iraola but I keep reading back those quotes from Antoine Semenyo about his training sessions. If we don't add real depth to this squad, I can't see us having any players left by December! I'm hoping our medical team and sports science department can mitigate things somewhat, but the combination of his training, style of play and games three days a week is something I have real concerns about.
Beautifully written article!
The reality is slots +1 was most effective when we couldn’t back with Trent to feed Salah/diaz with perfect long passes… and it made sense because Salah couldn’t press properly or track back.
But without Trent to not only progress the ball 40yards in and instant but to make that one-pass-progression a goal threat..
The other main progression was often Diaz carrying like a Duracell bunny…
But having Trent meant teams could not push up and pin us back because as soon as they did Salah would be in behind them so they *had* to drop back…
No Trent they could just ignore Salah as a threat and use him as a weakness (as some confessed)
This season.. Sitting back with an extra man left us unable to progress the ball up the pitch quickly to counter, struggling to progress at all, struggling to get out of our half, and by the time we did they opposition defence had reset and it was a block.
Klopps “pressing is the playmaker” had been replaced with “playmaker is our progression” (&play maker)
Suddenly none of it works.. we couldn’t exert pressure in the transitions from defence to attack or attack to defence.. we couldn’t pen teams in their third, couldn’t get out of ours, couldn’t profit from their mistakes..
That’s kind of the identity issue.
People so often treat defence and attack as separate… but high press is part of the attack.. and sitting deep/keeping men back won’t help you defend better if you can’t counter effectively..
people point to March of last year when it all went wrong. That was when Trent hurt his ankle against PSG and only played a handful of games for Liverpool again. Trent may have been the jenga piece.
I certainly believe so..
Even if you look at other games.. eg Newcastle.. Trent came off the bench and changed the game.
If you look at a lot of big games early last season… arsenal, city.. Trent set up the goal with insane only-Trent passes..
As Dan Kennard said on Josh’s podcast last summer… last season, Trent had the second highest xThreat of any player in europes top 5 leagues.. 0.1 behind Cherki, playing in France.
Trent was miles ahead of anyone else in the EPL. Salah was 2nd or 3rd and Trent supplied him….
Trent also had the highest %of his teams progressive and key passes of any player in the league.. ie Bruno Fernandez was second..
Ie not only were Liverpool more dependant on Trent last season than any team in the league was for any individual player but his passes were also the most threatening of any player by a distance..
The difference between Salah last season and this wasn’t that his legs went.. it was that Trent went.
And without Trent’s passing; you cannot carry salah’s defending.
Also - just to note - those of us who had pointed out for years that the Liverpool system wasn’t built to hide Trent, he was actually the most exposed behind Salah.. well *ahem* with no Trent teams could just completely overwhelm our right hand side without having to worry or take the risk of instant counters into the space they left.
🤷♂️ but hey. To me the biggest questions this season were always how we replaced the progressive passing, how we would feed Salah in the way he needed.. and how we would make the Salah staying high/not tracking tactic work.. and unfortunately the manager didn’t find a way to do any of them..
That’s why a return to high intensity system manager makes a lot of sense where a more possession based one has struggled to find a solution in the modern EPL
Very well said.
Brilliant work, Josh!
Like you said on your video with James Allcott, the initial feeling post-Arne has to be excitement. The key is providing him with the right personnel however.
The wingers are obviously massively important, the most important, but I also feeling that finding the Tyler Adams and Alex Scott equivalents are a close second. Tyler Adams being your 6 to break it up if the press is best is vital and a profile we are missing, as well as an Alex Scott who is brave in the build-up but also has the physical ability to get from build-up (defensive box) to box crashing the other end.
It would be great if you wrote a piece on finding them in the market, like you previously did with centre-backs not long ago.
Keep it up, Josh!
I want a real 6! Josh if you do a profiles special on midfielders, could you also look out for a profile like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, a guy who has all the physical tools but is maybe just being misused or in a squad that does not fit his toolset? One of the biggest Klopp what-ifs for me has always been what if Ox doesn't get clattered and completely destroy his knee. He profiled so incredibly for a Klopp 8. Finding a misused, underpriced physical beast like him would be great for Iraola!
It's only now I am realising how relieved that the torture of last season and watching our team has come to and end with the dismissal of Slot.
I was there when we beat Spurs to clinch the title a year ago and will be forever grateful to Slot but yes there is now relief and a very special ingredient, giddy excitement.
It feels good that we don't have all the answers, it feels good that we don't have a proven manager and it feels damn good that we will be jumping back on a rollercoaster.
I hope bravery doesn't turn out to be suicide.....let's go !!
Ultimately, it will all live and die by recruitment. We can change as many coaches as we want. We can identify all the talent in the world. But if we do not improve our decision architecture, we will fail.
The model is not the issue. The issue is how decisions are made. That does not mean people need sacking. It means they need to ensure every decision stacks in the right order, weighs opportunity cost correctly, and focuses relentlessly on the pain points that hurt the team most.
Football clubs rarely fail because they cannot identify good players. They fail because they cannot prioritise. The challenge is not finding ten talented footballers. The challenge is identifying which of those ten solves the most important problem at that specific moment.
A coach can influence the floor and the ceiling. But the size of the jump, and the severity of the drop, is ultimately dictated by recruitment.
It’s exciting, I still believe there is risk in the decision. But there was risk in keeping slot too.
As you keep repeating, lots of squad issues to fix.
With konate gone , you would think an easy solution for depth would be to undercut spurs for Senesi? Could take him on low wages , a lot lower than konate was looking for. You make the point that additions should be world class or have world class potential.
But if they aren’t going to go after someone like van hecke, than surely senesi simply as an addition for depth, esp given he knows iraolas tactics , would be shrewd whilst leoni/jacquet build experience the next two years and vvd aging.
Personally I think the way that Iraola plays being visually very press-heavy gives perhaps too much of an impression that there's not much work done re breaking down teams. Obviously the *perception* of Bournemouth is that they're a "small team" but last year they barely finished below us. While I do think teams will naturally play differently based on perception I think coaches encourage tactics that will work against their opponents and if they thought Bournemouth were as bad at attacking a low block as Slot's Liverpool, they would have defended in a low-block and stifled them more. Bournemouth were probably THE outlier team in the league, hardly like other teams didn't know and just played naively because they thought they were beneath them. Plus it's not that easy to stop an effective counter-press if the team can do it well, any clearance or deep cross from us is an opportunity to be a direct attack OR it can be a counter-press opportunity and there's not too much the opposition can do about that besides head/clear the ball back to you.
Also think we may be being unfair to Iraola in that he theoretically doesn't have the same level of technical players on his team - they aren't bad but in terms of the typical "build up" positions Senesi and Scott are good but we should have better players for that initial phase of unlocking. Might be the case that Iraola hasn't had the tools to unlock low-blocks before but he has ideas for that phase. Personally I'm pretty positive about him as a coaching prospect and think we are immediately improved.
My main worry is about recruitment because we evidently need a bunch of forwards to make any pressing system work and I personally don't believe the few forwards we have currently (Isak, Gakpo, Rio) actually suit the system. Think this really highlights the need for 3 signings with 2 being starter level imo. Then we need depth to allow players to get up to the required fitness/intensity levels (e.g. think a good idea to get starters to be as intense as poss for 60 and have subs who can play last 30 while we're working starters up to max intensity for 90) and we need depth that can start in cup competitions. Hoping Iraola will use Rio & Nyoni for this but we'll clearly need a bunch of squad players given likely outgoings. Think we realistically need 3 forwards (2 starting level), 1 or 2 midfielders (2 with 1 starter level if Curt & Mac go, 1 for depth if Curtis stays) and 1 or 2 defenders depending on how cooked Bradley's knee is (rumours are not great so suspect we'll need a starting RB and a depth CB but maybe if he's ok we can get by with a CB/RB utility guy.)
Lots to do for Hughes and Edwards this summer, for sure. I just hope they do a better job of finding players who fit in with what the manager wants and what the team needs than they did last summer.
Did they really miss though on what Slot wanted? Slot spent all summer talking about breaking down low blocks. Wirtz, Ekitike, Isak are all attacking players meant to beat defenses not lead a press. Isak and Hugo are VERY different from Darwin. Slot had to have some input on who the team bought.
As I have said before, we will play depending on how the opposition lets us play.
We are headed for a season of playing low block teams, home and away. Arsenal were successful with it and nearly won the champions league. Two teams stayed up playing it. Managers will copy it up and down the league.
The low block will just hit it long to clear. They will not play fancy out from the back. The Guardiola era is dead. Then you are playing a game of numbers.If you are too aggressive that makes it 1vs1 at the back.
A lot of our goals we conceded were gained from winning the second balls . This is where the press fails against the long ball If we have to fill that space up with midfielders to win the second ball. The midfield cannot press because they need to cover and then they are stretched between midfield and attack. PSG had that problem vs Arsenal. Their gifted midfielders could not support the attack quick enough.
We are headed back to possession based football and this is where the movement and the ability of the wingers/fullbacks to get past the block is important. PSG were trying to do it all the time especially vs Hincapie. But Arsenal put the centre forward into help at time. PSG never really created anything. Nobody can impose their high energy football on a low block.
It means Liverpool have to score first and early to bring them out and Liverpool have been poor at fast starts since the Klopp league trophy.
This is the concern for me is we are expecting high energetic pressing and the opposition know that and they won’t let it happen. Then what? Does Iraola have more flags in his cap? Does the Anfield fans have the patience? Does the players have the ability?
It is all well and good looking at Bournemouth but teams think they can get a point or even a win vs them. So the Bournemouth opponents do not low block as much and Bournemouth have more space.
As I have said Klopp faced it and failed to find a solution. Slot failed to find a solution. Can Iraola? I hope so but I am not sure since he only seems to have Bielsa way of playing and that failed for Leeds.
I find myself torn on Iraola, part of me is excited, but a bigger part of me feels like this is a step backwards, like we’re saying we want to be the plucky underdog who gets to win once in a while rather than the team that dominates. For me he’ll get the 1st season to implement his style, but then he has to genuinely compete for the title in season 2.
I believe Slot has a higher ceiling and if he’d been allowed to finish the transition we’d have seen a better brand of football next season
I feel the dearth of talent in the managerial space means risks are the only options. Even if you consider Arteta at Arsenal, his first managerial role, Maresca at Leicester or Kompany at Bayern all calculated risks for me but they are paying or paid off. You have to identify who has the potential to be the next Mourinho, Klopp, Pep etc. Enrique is the elder statesmen but he's only managed 2 clubs including PSG. What is key is buy in and unity, mainly from the players. This I think is what ultimately led to Slot being let go.
Great intro Josh! Sounds exciting him.
Given that he‘ll most likely play Wirtz and two midfielders, how do you see Iraola solve the issue that the two midfielders will be overloaded in most games?
In the clip, you said that the CB will follow his man into midfield, but he surely would want to avoid that with VVD, wouldn’t he?
The Netherlands play with a 3 with VVD in the middle. If a centre back presses into midfield then the back line is basically a 3, in which I expect VVD will remain in the middle. Whenever a centre back has pushed into midfield while VVD has been here it has been the other centre back, so I would expect that to continue.
I see.
On the back of my own question, I skipped through our last 4 games against Bournemouth. Last season Huijsen and Zabarnyi were following Szoboszlai and Salah everywhere, whereas this season Senesi stayed mostly in position while Hill was jumping. As compensation he had Kroupi following our right midfielder and Adli sticking close to our right back, creating overloads in the centre that way.
So a combination of Van Dijk and Senesi would be a challenge.
Hi Josh, another quality article. With Iraola now as good as confirmed and Konate gone, would you rethink any of your choices from the Redmen Director of Football challenge?
Good read and enjoy the video added to help explain. One thing I would see as advantage to where Klopp was is that the new manager has lived the devision for the last couple of years and will knows it’s football. No doubt he will already be thinking about being a more dominant team in possession and how to set up that way
Any view on who the midfield 2 is in a 4-2-3-1 and is it a risk to go with Gravenberch and Szoboszlai as the two, or do you think they are ideally suited? We saw under Slot that Gravenberch can work as a 6, but under Klopp saw that he isn't a runner. Would the demands of the Iraola system expect him to be more of a runner than an anchor?
I wouldn't be surprised to see Szoboszlai move on in the next 6 months if no new deal is agreed, so they stop losing prime aged players for nothing