How Liverpool Did It

The new champions of England.

We aim to be pretty cold on this Substack. I mean, when you’re all about tactics and data, there isn’t much room for fluff.

But days like yesterday matter most. After navigating a gruelling season that isn’t actually over yet, Liverpool confirmed themselves as champions of England once more. The Reds reclaimed their crown in glorious fashion, beating Tottenham Hotspur by five goals to one.

Anfield was as red as it has ever been. I found myself hugging strangers — and subscribers — and taking selfies with them. As I write these words, I can still hear fireworks outside. I can still smell the smoke on my clothes from the red flares that ended up dominating the city’s skyline.

It’s funny, when you think about it. Liverpool didn’t actually lift the trophy on Sunday night. There was no parade, either. In a sense, what everybody ended up celebrating was mathematical certainty. Nobody can catch us. It’s over. Guaranteed. Done.

Now if 100 per cent probability isn’t something we can get behind on this Substack, I don’t know what is.

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So how did Liverpool do it, then?

Well, I’m going to focus purely on the Reds in this post. We can save the talk about what happened to Arsenal and Manchester City for my annual season review in May.

There’s plenty of factors that have contributed to Liverpool’s title win, and a fair few of them have been beyond Arne Slot’s control. Variance, randomness, timing, luck, whatever.

But in this post, I’m going to highlight what Liverpool could control. You make your own luck, some would argue, with Slot’s men establishing themselves as deserved champions this term — no doubt about it — claiming top spot with four games left to play.

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Let’s start with the headline stuff. The fine adjustments that Slot has made to Liverpool’s general playing style, having taken over from Jürgen Klopp less than 12 months ago.

Well, it’s worth remembering that after 33 matches last season, the Reds were level on points with Arsenal at the summit of the Premier League table. With just five games to go, Klopp had a genuine shot at going out on the ultimate high.

The fact that Liverpool challenged for the title until the final stretch is evidence of a couple of things. First, the players at the club were already really good. And second, they were already pretty well coached, too.

Slot didn’t need to work miracles upon his arrival in England, no. He just needed to make tweaks. Alterations. Tiny modifications to present Liverpool with a marginally better chance of maintaining their charge across 38 matches rather than 33.

The recipe was good. The product tasted nice. All that was required was the palate of a new chef to spot any potential areas for improvement. And Slot did exactly that, immediately tackling Liverpool’s habit of constantly accelerating the game without a care in the world.

There’s such a thing as being too offensive in football, and maybe Klopp was that. Sure, the Reds created loads — 20.6 shots per match to be exact — but they conceded too much, too.

“From what I’ve seen from the boys in pre-season and also in training sessions, they sometimes have to be better aware of risk versus reward,” Slot told TNT Sports eight months ago. “Sometimes they take so much risk with a difficult ball that could only lead five metres up the pitch. They over risk simple passes.”

Indeed, his influence has been clear since uttering those words. It’s the sort of subtle difference that’s tricky to quantify with data, but it’s been clear on the eye all season. Liverpool no longer play at 100mph for 90 minutes. They are more careful about picking their moments, eager to play the game on their terms with a greater appreciation for game state.

The clip below was recorded a few days after Liverpool beat Wolves in September, just six matches into the new Premier League campaign.

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As a result of their smarter usage of the ball, Liverpool have been more watertight on the defensive end under Slot, presenting their opponents with fewer opportunities to hurt them from week to week.

Last season, the Reds faced about 10.9 shots per match, worth a total of around 1.2 non-penalty xG. This season, they’re facing roughly 9.5 shots per match, worth just 0.8 xG.

That’s a huge difference across a full campaign. For perspective, Liverpool faced shots worth a grand total of 45 xG last season. This season, that same figure is on course to be just 31.6 xG. So our defence has been about 14 goals better under Slot. That’s a 30 per cent improvement.

The shift has resulted in Liverpool scoring first more often. That has happened 23 times this season — with another four matches still to play — compared to just 18 times last season.

Liverpool grew accustomed to chasing the scoreline and expended too much energy in their attempts to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat under Klopp, which perhaps contributed to the two main factors that eventually derailed his last dance: an injury crisis, and an attacking department that couldn’t cope with the burden any longer.

But availability has improved under Slot. And Liverpool have showcased more control over proceedings on the pitch, equating to a quieter defence and a more streamlined attack, with their balance across both departments ranking as the best in the division by some distance.

That ability to side with probability by outshooting the opposition every week has been one of the main drivers behind my confidence that Liverpool would eventually get over the line.

I’m not exactly sure when I moved, but I think it was at some point in December. The clip below is from the middle of January after Darwin Núñez scored two late winners against Brentford.

And on top of consistently outperforming the opposition, Liverpool have managed to avoid getting stung by football’s booby traps, such as penalties, red cards and set-pieces.

Slot’s outfit have been awarded nine spot kicks this season, while facing just one at the opposite end. That +8 difference is not to be sniffed at. And when it comes to sendings off, Liverpool are -1 at present, which isn’t ideal but isn’t particularly decisive, either.

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Going deeper, the structural and positional edits that Slot has made have proved to be genius for the most part. It’s crazy just how much each player is reliant on what’s going on around him.

Mohamed Salah is the obvious one. He’s scored or assisted about 58 per cent of Liverpool’s 80 goals this term, starting every single match while being granted a license to recover whenever his teammates are defending.

Speaking on the pitch over the weekend, he said: “Now [this season], I don't have to defend much. The tactics are quite different. I said to him [Slot], ‘As long as you rest me defensively I will provide offensively'. I am glad that I did. He listened a lot and you can see my numbers.”

Salah has been a passenger against the ball, which explains why Dominik Szoboszlai has been so integral just behind him. I’ve criticised the Hungarian at times this year, but he does a lot of the dirty work for the two stars on that side, as shown below. A key ingredient in the recipe.

Shoutout to The Anfield Wrap for letting me access their StatsBomb data.

Cody Gakpo has been restored as a wide forward, and he’s looked like a different player. Ryan Gravenberch has filled Liverpool’s holding midfield void, with the Dutchman still on course to start 38 out of 38. There’s also been more structure in the build-up phase. Overlaps and underlaps are back. And we’ve witnessed tons of one-on-one situations out wide.

Liverpool have soaked pressure as a collective unit at times, throwing cold water on the philosophical idea that high pressing is a non-negotiable. They have picked apart deep-lying defences with choreographed crosses from all angles.

Darwin Núñez has been relegated as the finisher of Liverpool’s moves, with Salah reappointed as our talisman. A simple fix, sure, but one that Klopp would have struggled to justify given his initial influence on the signing of the Uruguayan from Benfica.

The South American — who I’m now convinced is just not good at finishing — has attempted to convert just 32 of Liverpool’s 582 shots in the Premier League this season. Last term, on the other hand, he hoovered up 107 of their 781 efforts. He was at the forefront. Now, he’s in the shadows. And you have to admit, the team has probably benefited.

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Overall, the recipe was always good. But now, the meal tastes better. Slot has used the same ingredients as his predecessor, but in different ways. There was no need for any uphill transition. Everything was already there.

If you’ve followed this Substack throughout the campaign, you’ll already know about the changes that Slot has made. The tempo. The crossing towards the back stick. The unlocking of Salah. The pressing of Szoboszlai. It’s been a pleasure to cover each and every development.

It’s only now — looking back at the season as a whole — that I realise just how many low-key changes Slot has made to bring us here. To this place of success. This place at the top of the Premier League table. It’s a place that we recognise. A place where we belong. A place we should call home.