Mailbag: Darwin Núñez, Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and More

Answering a selection of questions from my paid subscribers.

Alright, time to answer some of your questions. I recorded a Q&A episode of my podcast earlier this week. You can listen to that here. This post is an attempt to answer some more of them.

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Jack Lewis asks:

If we assume Alexander Isak and Julián Alvarez are unattainable, who would be your realistic choice of striker to bring in?

So I feel like I’ve made my stance pretty clear on this topic of late. I’m just not the biggest fan of strikers, sorry. Indeed, I wrote No to Strikers just three weeks ago.

Love Isak. Love Alvarez. But I don’t really see any guaranteed home runs beyond them, which makes me feel uncomfortable given the transfer fee that a shiny new striker would demand.

When you think about how Liverpool operate in the market, it’s about targeting inefficiencies. Buying relegated players like Gini Wijnaldum and Andy Robertson. Fixing broken players like Xherdan Shaqiri and Federico Chiesa. Using release clauses.

There’s nothing inefficient about strikers. They demand the biggest fees because they’re expected to score the goals. You pay top whack. The clever way around that is avoiding strikers completely and targeting adaptable forwards instead. You get more for your money.

If you absolutely want a conversation about strikers, I don’t hate Gonçalo Ramos. Hugo Ekitike and Benjamin Šeško are too expensive, but they’re both 22 years old, which is a positive. So if they fail, at least you’d be able to get your money back. Ollie Watkins, no. Jonathan David, meh.

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Peter Fleming asks:

Given the current recruitment drive, do any of the second-string players — Stefan Bajčetić, Tyler Morton, Ben Doak — have strong enough capabilities to get into the first team under Arne Slot?

Sadly not, for me. We simply can’t allow the desire to promote youngsters to outweight the elite demands at Liverpool. If you’re not at the level, you get sold.

Morton has always been a tidy player. But this is Liverpool. Doak is really dangerous on his day and his acceleration from a standing start can make Jeremie Frimpong look slow. But his decision-making is as raw as it gets right now. Too raw for Anfield.

The Scot is still a teenager, so he’s a decent investment for a lot of sides with the time to bet on his potential. He could be great, but he’s miles away from that destination at the moment, and the Reds have trophies to win.

If you can raise around £25m for him, you take it and throw that money at someone like Florian Wirtz. Liverpool sit at the top of the food chain with a select few clubs from across Europe. They should act like it.

Bajčetić is a difficult one. I’m personally not sure, but he hasn’t had much of a chance of late because of injuries and bad loans. I’ve probably got more faith in Rio Ngumoha and Trey Nyoni at present, even though both are nowhere near the level just yet. The former in particular could be special.

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Animijal asks:

Early days, but which Premier League teams are due to over or underperform next season versus last year? Newcastle United seemingly overperformed their data. Nottingham Forest overperformed, etc.

So it’s definitely too early for all this. Plenty of business will happen between now and the start of the new campaign, which explains why it’s virtually impossible to predict next season at this point.

Nevertheless, based on the season just gone, it’s safe to worry about Forest a little bit. They didn’t end the campaign well at all. Chris Wood probably won’t convert his chances to the same elite level next term, and there’s interest in Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White across the division, too. Nuno Espírito Santo to be sacked before Christmas is worth watching.

Brentford are another team worth worrying about. Just lost Thomas Frank after seven years at the helm. And their two main sources of goals in Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa could leave in the coming months. A smart club, but that’s a recipe for disaster.

On the positive end, Chelsea are going to become more prominent in the coming years. They’ve got the youngest squad in the Premier League by a distance, and seem obsessed with the idea of investing in tomorrow. Those deals will start paying them back soon, with their xGD per 90 level with Manchester City on +0.54 this season. That’s decent.

One thing I’m planning to add to this Substack before the start of the new season is a predictions post — kinda like Monday Night Football — with a view to saving those takes and reflecting on them next year to see how I did.

Last season, I was half joking when I said Manchester United would finish 11th. They actually finished 15th. I was too kind. Two seasons prior, I said Crystal Palace would finish above Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea. I got that one right. The Blues plummeted to 12th.

It’s impossible to forecast this crazy sport. It’s just too volatile to the extent that it rarely makes sense. We all get plenty wrong. But it’s nice when bold shouts end up patting you on the back.

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Butty asks:

Do you think the club could decide to keep Darwin Núñez for another year, given Wirtz signs and we need an impact sub. Núñez being a starter for Uruguay in the World Cup no matter his minutes (contrary to Diogo Jota) and the striker market being mental?