Mailbag: FSG, Mohamed Salah, Strikers and More
My paid subscribers asked. So I answered.
It’s officially Q&A week on this Substack.
Episode #057 of Distance Covered will be recorded in a few days, but I’m already pretty certain that we won’t get through every question. So given that, it makes sense to answer a few in this post.
Paul Carroll asks:
‘Given the reluctance to invest in previous years, what makes you think that this summer will be any different? I can envisage a world in which Virgil van Dijk leaves, and Ibrahima Konaté is asked to step up as the dominant centre-back. I have real reservations about this ownership.’
So I wrote a piece on Fenway Sports Group last week. You can read that here. But there’s a few things to add on this. First, I think general fan perception on what Liverpool desperately need to add to their squad tends to be greatly exaggerated.
Over the past few years, the squad has been largely elite with a few voids, but it’s important to remember that every squad has a void somewhere. Indeed, since 2018, we’ve witnessed three 90-point seasons, and that’s not including this season, which could be another and will deliver the title.
Once you reach a certain level, it’s hard to improve. But when improvement is easily attainable, Liverpool do business. Remember the summer of 2023? Four new midfielders arrived for about £170m, with five leaving.
And back at the start of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure, again, there was lots of business conducted. Van Dijk, Alisson Becker, Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané. It made sense to buy players, because the guys already at Liverpool were pretty ordinary.
This summer, it remains to be seen whether the big trio will stay put. But regardless, there’s plenty of scope for improvement. A new left-back is easy. A new forward, too. Another midfielder, one who is much better than Wataru Endō. There’s lots to do.
And as a general point, any lack of business isn’t decided in Boston. John Henry doesn’t care. The Reds run themselves. You can spend what you earn, that’s the rule. And in recent years, I think it’s mostly been a case of Liverpool choosing not to spend, because it hasn’t been worth it.
PM asks:
‘We clearly need to recruit in most areas. This has the air of a defining moment. Realistically, how big of a rebuild is possible/likely? Unlike others, I like supporting a club which tries to be financially self-sustaining and isn't owned by a state.’
This is a nice follow-up question to what Paul asked. So last summer, I expected minimal business because the squad was already great, and we had just appointed a new manager who was basically a complete stranger.
This summer, however, I do expect more. I think it’s safe to anticipate a fair amount of business, the true extent of which will be decided by Salah, Van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
I’d ordinarily be forecasting future business at this point of the season. I like doing that sort of thing on this Substack. But it’s kinda impossible right now, because so much depends on the futures of those three players.
But here’s my view. Regardless of what happens with those three stars, Liverpool still need a left-back, midfielder and forward as a minimum. A new Andy Robertson, a better and younger Endō, and a replacement for Darwin Núñez.
Beyond that, you’re reliant on contracts. You’ll definitely need a centre-back if Van Dijk leaves, and perhaps even if he stays given the uncertainty surrounding Konaté. You’ll need another forward to replace Salah, in addition to the guy replacing Núñez. You’ll need a right-back to replace Alexander-Arnold.
If Liverpool have to tackle all of those fires at once this summer, maybe then Stefan Bajčetić would become the new Endō. Maybe Chiesa would get a shot at being the new Salah for a bit. It’s about being creative.
Toby Blackmore asks:
‘We always praise Arne Slot for his tactical changes at half-time as we always seem to come out stronger after he’s had a half to analyse the way the opposition is playing. Should we be praising him? Is it a little worrying that he seems to need a half to get it right so often?’
It’s an interesting point, and one that Slot has talked about himself quite a few times. It mostly stems from Liverpool’s status as the overwhelming favourite going into almost every match.
Because of that, the Reds approach each contest with their usual system, whereas our opponents tend to change something specific. If you’re playing Liverpool at Anfield, you can’t just turn up and play. You need some sort of strategic edge.
That’s perhaps why Slot needs 45 minutes to recognise what’s happening. It’s not ideal, but you can’t argue with the results. Also, because Liverpool don’t necessarily know what lies ahead in each bout, they tend to start games without much appetite for risk.
As each match progresses, Slot learns where his players can and can’t afford to be bolder, turning up the dial on his team’s risk-o-meter until the Reds score twice and put the result out of sight.
David Gibbon asks:
‘Assuming the contracts haven't been sorted, do you think Michael Edwards and Richard Hughes will be getting the data nerds to fully look into Salah’s recent form. Do you think they will use his current form to make up their mind on what to do with him?’
A lot of people have probably wobbled watching Salah lately. He suddenly looks very old, and we’ve perhaps witnessed a glimpse of what he might look like when he finally does decline like the rest of us mere mortals.
But trust me, the nerds have got this covered, and no poor run of recent form will change their perspective. If your analysis has shifted watching him of late, your analysis was never that good in the first place.
Liverpool’s decisions stem from forecasting. That’s what the power of data can do for you. It’s about projecting what will happen in the future based on what has happened up until now.
How many points will this player deliver at Anfield if all goes according to plan, how will his numbers change over time, and what will his decline look like?
And this is why controversial decisions have been made in the past, regarding the likes of Gini Wijnaldum, Roberto Firmino, Joël Matip and even Jordan Henderson, who probably wouldn’t have been offered a new deal in 2021 if Klopp hadn’t possessed such an influence behind the scenes.
The man on the street cares about what Salah is doing right now, and what he’s done since joining the club. The sporting director cares about his level of performance across the next 12 months and beyond.
Perry asks:
‘How have players that you profiled last season fared compared to your expectations, and are there any specific ones that you’d still be interested in?’
Nice question. Last summer, word got out that Liverpool wanted a new wide player, so I dedicated a series to finding one. Looking back, I’m a bit annoyed that I placed so much emphasis on the wide part. I should’ve grouped all forwards together and picked out the wide guys at the very end.
Nevertheless, some interesting names emerged. My winner was Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — who was still at Napoli — and the Reds probably would’ve moved for him two months ago if Paris Saint-Germain hadn’t attracted him to France using the wealth of an entire nation.
Omar Marmoush also made the final. He showed up as a real talisman for Eintracht Frankfurt, and six months after my search, Manchester City bought him. Very cool, but I would’ve preferred to see him at Anfield. He’s my kinda forward.
Yankuba Minteh made the final shortlist, too. I really liked him and still do, but he’s very raw. Too much so for Liverpool. Brighton and Hove Albion signed him from Newcastle United — who had to sell — just two weeks after my series ended, and it’s worth noting that he’s only 20 years old. Will sign for the Reds in 2027.
Steve Riley and Ross Ledwith ask:
‘What qualities do you think Slot wants from his ideal number nine, and how would you describe the role in his system?’
This has been a popular question. And I’ll be honest, I don’t think we need to overthink it. We’re talking about Liverpool here. The impending champions of England. One of the favourites to win the Champions League every season.
The player in question has to possess output. You’re playing in the final third for the best team in the Premier League, with the nine shirt on your back. So regardless of tactics and systems, you must deliver with goals and assists.
But beyond the obvious, I’m not sure Liverpool should chase a false nine. Or a target man. Or any other specific tactical profile. For me, you don’t even have to be a strict nine.
Again, recognising the level of the club here, the player in question should be able to do pretty much everything up top. A multifunctional forward under the age of 26 who won’t put shackles on your ideas.
To an extent, just go out there and buy the best player you can. Within reason, of course. The guy who will move the needle the most. I know there’s been talk of Slot’s nine being a facilitator, but if you offered a 25-year-old version of Harry Kane to the Dutchman this summer, I’m pretty sure he’d take him.
As the Trent news broke after this, I wondered what you thought about Cambiasso for the right back position? Like you said in the "Replacing Andy Robertson: Part 5" piece, he is good with both feet and has played right back as well, but on the other hand he could be really expensive. Would be interesting
Great little Q&A Josh! Wanted to submit a question but it looked like the Trent deal with Madrid was becoming all the more likely, so held off. Now it seems pretty much done, I’d love to hear your thoughts on how we go about ‘replacing’ him and his unique skill set, particularly in relation to how ridiculous his long range passing is for those rapid transitions from deep! Will we just see more Slot influence on our style of play to compensate e.g. much more short passing / more traditional RB play allah Bradley. Or could we see someone like Szobo have more responsibility to make those long range switches of play. We don’t see a tonne of it from him but I reckon he has it in his locker. I’ve thought about that nearly Diaz goal against Newcastle as the shining example! Insane outside of the right boot pass from Trent to Salah before Salah puts in that delicious outside of the left boot cross to Diaz. Nobody else in our team plays that pass IMP.