Understand there’s a RW hole without Salah, but worth mentioning PSG, who have won back-to-back Champions Leagues, don’t have a natural RW. They’ve been using Doue out there most the time, but ultimately they just rotate the wingers and keep the opposition guessing.
I think that’s the idea we’re going with. Barcola, Rio, Munoz can play both sides. It’s not 100% ideal but Iraola did it at Bournemouth, too. And then we’ll probably go and sign a more natural RW in the next year or 2 (possibly Rayan).
PSG just isn’t an applicable comparison.. or replicable scenario
There players just don’t play league games.
The reason why they are blowing teams away with pace and intensity and movement in CL games is as much down to the fact that their starting CL players have only played 10 league games as due to any tactical brilliance or squad planning.
There’s a lot to be said for Iraola’s rotation and the way he varied eg Semanyo’s wing depending on tactics.. but again slightly different if silverware is on the line and you are under pressure to play your best players in their most effective positions every week..
The market has changed. Edwards wanted to do the multi-club model because they stole a march with data but that margin has gone.
Bargains are rarely available and the competition for data outliers is too high.
Stand out options are pursued by all the top clubs.. for big fees… and it up to them to choose (Wirtz, Diomande, rice, caicedo, etc)
the gambles are signed for ridiculous money by Chelsea, spurs, Newcastle whoever.. the next tiers down (all of Chelsea’s signings!)
The data data led development purchases are signed by Brighton, RB etc for big money despite only playing half a season of top level..
LFC seem to be trying to sign the best ready players they can.. and then the most talented 16-20 year olds to develop.
but it’s nuts right.. because if Roger’s is worth 116, tonali 100m, Fernandes 85, Diomande 130..
PSG are probably right that barcola is worth 140m 🤷♂️ and it’s our valuations that are out of date.
it’s like looking at a terraced house in the uk and thinking it’s worth £160k when they are selling for £280k, £300k etc..
The market is just mental. God knows how you can judge an SD. We need a RB but it Hughes paid £80-100m for Porro that would be insane but it may also be market price 🤷♂️🤯
I don't think Brighton's transfers of youngsters is based on data at all. I doubt data even exists in the Paraguayan league or wherever. They just have absolutely formidable old school scouting. So should we. So where is it? It is crazy the players they pick out of obscurity like the Swedish/Iranian lad, Diego Gomez etc etc etc, never mind the likes of Caicedo who have already made them a fortune.
It's amazing how many Reds are whining about the market being crazy, apparently not noticing that we spunked half a billion quid on players last summer, including an absolutely mindboggling £40m on a Hungarian shit Jon Arne Riise.
Brighton famously do rely on data.. as well as scouting and every bit of evidence they can find.
Brighton (Bloom), Brentford (Benham) and John Henry (FSG) all professional gamblers.
Should read Josh’s book; he goes into detail there, but it can be seen in all Bloom’s ventures, including oxygen house, oxygen conservation etc. his work with the statistician mark dixon…
Bloom’s model is to use data, and all Available information, to final Market inefficiencies and bet/invest against them..
Caicedo was a well known data outlier; it’s just there was a really complicated situation around ownership Brighton managed to unpick.
But yes, there is data on pretty much all players at all levels of leagues now. It’s crazy but it’s there…
That’s the reason these young players like Rio, Abe, Nyoni, the 4 centre backs, the young Colombian we’ve just signed.. it’s why they are so hugely in demand.
Either way..
Kerkez is a very, very good player who is only getting better.. and £40m was tbf a very good price in the current market.
I wasn’t whining - last years spending highlights my points. Isak and Wirtz are the first category players we could only sign a league winners and they could choose their destination and the top clubs were queuing up.
Ekitike was one who would fit into the “gamble” category that Newcastle would have paid €100m for.
Leoni had played about 10 games in the Italian league and we paid £30m for him at 17… he’s the kind of gamble we never would have previously gone for with so little top flight data.. but again Newcastle etc were willing to pay more..
Kerkez and Frimpong were frankly bargain.. Kerkez best LB in the league the year before but followed Hughes (as his dad made clear), Frimpong hugely in demand but low release clause..
Ceucerella went for £60m, then gain £50m.. pallestra what £50m.. Kerkez for £40m is likely to look a bargain in time
I was okay about the centre half situation as I really rate Ndukwe as a 5th option, until I learned that he can't play for us as we haven't registered him, as it stands. Another epic fail. We should always have 4 senior pros plus an outstanding (eligible) prospect as 5th choice to cover injuries. Ndiaye I don't really rate although to be fair to the kid he had a decent game against the mackems. Still looks a 6 6 Djimi Traoré to me though. Why we've registered him and not Ndukwe must be down to work permit law. No way a kid from Senegal is getting into Britain without the supposedly elite endorsement. An Austrian national might have less hoops to jump through.
We could probably do with a year loan for a CB/RB, or just accelerate the Jarell buyback if that's the plan. But when was the last time we pulled off a good loan, usually it's a leftfield fail. And is Jarell buyback still on if Hughes is on his bike?
Things will look up once JJ is fit to start a game. I think he's gonna be a monster...
Not arsed with Bradley Crapola talk. I don't think we're in for him. Getting tiresome. He'd be off to Arsenal like a rat up a drainpipe given a choice of us or them.
Can’t honestly see us in for Barcola at that price.. have to see how PSG move.. mixed views about him as a player generally, and his potential levels… Will see. Not sure what other options are and if it’s barcola for £100m+ or a very average players for 80m.. probs better to go big.
Re CB’s..
IIRC it’s not we haven’t registered Ndukwe.. we can’t as until he plays senior club & international he doesn’t have the work permit points… and the appeal failed.
I’d love to see Quansah back.. may be one for next season as you would assume it would have happened by now.. although worlcup may have delayed 🤷♂️
Other than that i thinks it’s more of a risk to rely on Gomez and Bradley then it is to worry about players not playing the league before.. as there will be a huge premium on very average PL experienced CB’s.
RB’s a tough position in the PL to be honest.. Bradley and grumping suffers from injuries.. timber and white likewise.. Reece James.. city use a midfield in Nunes and it will be interesting to see if that works without the Pep magic.
Frankly, other then young potential, I am not sure there are really stand out targets for a lot of these positions
Understand there’s a RW hole without Salah, but worth mentioning PSG, who have won back-to-back Champions Leagues, don’t have a natural RW. They’ve been using Doue out there most the time, but ultimately they just rotate the wingers and keep the opposition guessing.
I think that’s the idea we’re going with. Barcola, Rio, Munoz can play both sides. It’s not 100% ideal but Iraola did it at Bournemouth, too. And then we’ll probably go and sign a more natural RW in the next year or 2 (possibly Rayan).
PSG just isn’t an applicable comparison.. or replicable scenario
There players just don’t play league games.
The reason why they are blowing teams away with pace and intensity and movement in CL games is as much down to the fact that their starting CL players have only played 10 league games as due to any tactical brilliance or squad planning.
There’s a lot to be said for Iraola’s rotation and the way he varied eg Semanyo’s wing depending on tactics.. but again slightly different if silverware is on the line and you are under pressure to play your best players in their most effective positions every week..
What have you done with Josh Williams? Who is this excited fella? I had to check I had it playing at the right speed 🤔
NYC vibes.
Well, that was fun!
Re Hughes..
The market has changed. Edwards wanted to do the multi-club model because they stole a march with data but that margin has gone.
Bargains are rarely available and the competition for data outliers is too high.
Stand out options are pursued by all the top clubs.. for big fees… and it up to them to choose (Wirtz, Diomande, rice, caicedo, etc)
the gambles are signed for ridiculous money by Chelsea, spurs, Newcastle whoever.. the next tiers down (all of Chelsea’s signings!)
The data data led development purchases are signed by Brighton, RB etc for big money despite only playing half a season of top level..
LFC seem to be trying to sign the best ready players they can.. and then the most talented 16-20 year olds to develop.
but it’s nuts right.. because if Roger’s is worth 116, tonali 100m, Fernandes 85, Diomande 130..
PSG are probably right that barcola is worth 140m 🤷♂️ and it’s our valuations that are out of date.
it’s like looking at a terraced house in the uk and thinking it’s worth £160k when they are selling for £280k, £300k etc..
The market is just mental. God knows how you can judge an SD. We need a RB but it Hughes paid £80-100m for Porro that would be insane but it may also be market price 🤷♂️🤯
I don't think Brighton's transfers of youngsters is based on data at all. I doubt data even exists in the Paraguayan league or wherever. They just have absolutely formidable old school scouting. So should we. So where is it? It is crazy the players they pick out of obscurity like the Swedish/Iranian lad, Diego Gomez etc etc etc, never mind the likes of Caicedo who have already made them a fortune.
It's amazing how many Reds are whining about the market being crazy, apparently not noticing that we spunked half a billion quid on players last summer, including an absolutely mindboggling £40m on a Hungarian shit Jon Arne Riise.
Brighton famously do rely on data.. as well as scouting and every bit of evidence they can find.
Brighton (Bloom), Brentford (Benham) and John Henry (FSG) all professional gamblers.
Should read Josh’s book; he goes into detail there, but it can be seen in all Bloom’s ventures, including oxygen house, oxygen conservation etc. his work with the statistician mark dixon…
Bloom’s model is to use data, and all Available information, to final Market inefficiencies and bet/invest against them..
Caicedo was a well known data outlier; it’s just there was a really complicated situation around ownership Brighton managed to unpick.
But yes, there is data on pretty much all players at all levels of leagues now. It’s crazy but it’s there…
That’s the reason these young players like Rio, Abe, Nyoni, the 4 centre backs, the young Colombian we’ve just signed.. it’s why they are so hugely in demand.
Either way..
Kerkez is a very, very good player who is only getting better.. and £40m was tbf a very good price in the current market.
I wasn’t whining - last years spending highlights my points. Isak and Wirtz are the first category players we could only sign a league winners and they could choose their destination and the top clubs were queuing up.
Ekitike was one who would fit into the “gamble” category that Newcastle would have paid €100m for.
Leoni had played about 10 games in the Italian league and we paid £30m for him at 17… he’s the kind of gamble we never would have previously gone for with so little top flight data.. but again Newcastle etc were willing to pay more..
Kerkez and Frimpong were frankly bargain.. Kerkez best LB in the league the year before but followed Hughes (as his dad made clear), Frimpong hugely in demand but low release clause..
Ceucerella went for £60m, then gain £50m.. pallestra what £50m.. Kerkez for £40m is likely to look a bargain in time
I was okay about the centre half situation as I really rate Ndukwe as a 5th option, until I learned that he can't play for us as we haven't registered him, as it stands. Another epic fail. We should always have 4 senior pros plus an outstanding (eligible) prospect as 5th choice to cover injuries. Ndiaye I don't really rate although to be fair to the kid he had a decent game against the mackems. Still looks a 6 6 Djimi Traoré to me though. Why we've registered him and not Ndukwe must be down to work permit law. No way a kid from Senegal is getting into Britain without the supposedly elite endorsement. An Austrian national might have less hoops to jump through.
We could probably do with a year loan for a CB/RB, or just accelerate the Jarell buyback if that's the plan. But when was the last time we pulled off a good loan, usually it's a leftfield fail. And is Jarell buyback still on if Hughes is on his bike?
Things will look up once JJ is fit to start a game. I think he's gonna be a monster...
Not arsed with Bradley Crapola talk. I don't think we're in for him. Getting tiresome. He'd be off to Arsenal like a rat up a drainpipe given a choice of us or them.
Good points..
Can’t honestly see us in for Barcola at that price.. have to see how PSG move.. mixed views about him as a player generally, and his potential levels… Will see. Not sure what other options are and if it’s barcola for £100m+ or a very average players for 80m.. probs better to go big.
Re CB’s..
IIRC it’s not we haven’t registered Ndukwe.. we can’t as until he plays senior club & international he doesn’t have the work permit points… and the appeal failed.
I’d love to see Quansah back.. may be one for next season as you would assume it would have happened by now.. although worlcup may have delayed 🤷♂️
Other than that i thinks it’s more of a risk to rely on Gomez and Bradley then it is to worry about players not playing the league before.. as there will be a huge premium on very average PL experienced CB’s.
RB’s a tough position in the PL to be honest.. Bradley and grumping suffers from injuries.. timber and white likewise.. Reece James.. city use a midfield in Nunes and it will be interesting to see if that works without the Pep magic.
Frankly, other then young potential, I am not sure there are really stand out targets for a lot of these positions