Scouting Centre-Backs: Part 1
A series dedicated to finding a new centre-back for Liverpool.
Alright, transfer season is upon us. The January window opens in just a few days and — frankly — I’m getting bored writing about Arne Slot’s endless number of tactical tweaks. Especially considering most of them have been forced upon him.
I’m going to take a break from covering Liverpool on the pitch, with a view to having a glance at the transfer market instead. It’s been a while. Let’s take a look at what the Reds need, as well as identifying who fits the criteria.
It always goes down well on this Substack when I dedicate a series to finding a new player. As I type these words, I’m not quite sure whether to go down that exact same route again, but regardless, I’m confident we’ll end up in a similar place.
The pressing concern relates to what Liverpool need. Shall I find a new winger? What about a centre-back? I know lots of people want a midfielder, too. I’m spoilt for choice.
To decide, I opened the floor to Twitter — yes, it’s still called that — with the poll having been open for 30 minutes as of right now. Over 1,500 people have voted so far, with 80 per cent — an overwhelming majority — prioritising a centre-back. It’s safe to say we already have a winner.
So we’ve currently got four centre-back options at the club, but most of them don’t count.
There’s Virgil van Dijk, who is 34 years old. Ibrahima Konaté has a contract which is due to expire in six months. Giovanni Leoni is a teenager who won’t play again until next season. And Joe Gomez is more of an idea than a footballer nowadays.
I mean, let’s not beat around the bush here. That’s an absolute shambles to such an extent that Marc Guéhi alone probably wouldn’t be enough. The Reds have neglected their centre-back department for some time, and it’s showing of late.
Van Dijk makes things complicated, too. He plays every single minute, he’s captain of the club, and — despite his turbulent run of form — he’s still one of the best in the world in his position as far as I’m concerned. But he’s also old now. And he plays on the left side.
The right time to sign his successor is difficult to determine. Like, Mohamed Salah isn’t going to extend his stay at Anfield. That’s already set in stone. But with Van Dijk, it isn’t out of the question.
As a result, it’s tricky when considering left-footed options who play on the left side of a two-man pairing. Van Dijk is such a dominant presence that he will probably continue to play every minute until his time is up. That’s cool, but it kinda confuses contingency planning.
You can’t sign a left footer to play next to Van Dijk in place of Konaté, it’s just wrong. Imagine a righty on the left and a lefty on the right. Sorry, that’s just not allowed. I don’t make the rules.
So unlike previous posts searching for players, I’m going to simplify this one a bit. Liverpool need at least one centre-back, perhaps two. And because it remains to be seen whether the player in question should be a righty or a lefty, I’m going to ignore that aspect. I know, shame on me.
In essence, I just want a really good centre-back. Given the uncertainty surrounding Slot’s future and his system, I don’t feel like I’m in a position to be too specific this time around.
I also need to touch on the usual caveats. First, there’s a reason I haven’t scouted centre-backs on this Substack before. It’s because using defensive data is like running across a minefield.
Scoring a million goals is cool. But making a million clearances doesn’t necessarily mean you’re good. You need to add more context than usual when scouting defenders.
The below visualisation — taken from a piece that I wrote last season — captures what I’m talking about. It’s out of date now, of course, but the point still stands. Who is good, and who is bad?
Like, the best defender across Europe’s big five leagues this season when it comes to tackles won is Neco Williams. Do you want to sign him? Me neither. The best for blocks is Willi Orban. No thanks.
And in addition to the above, I’m only going to filter players based on this season. I wouldn’t do that if I was working for a club. The more minutes, the better. But I’m conducting this experiment purely as a means of determining who is hot right now.
I want a centre-back who is aged 26 or under. I want him to be fast, massive, vocal, handsome, homegrown, good on the ball, strong in the air, dominant around set-pieces, great at parties, and available for a reasonable price.
No player will tick all of those boxes, but that’s the aim. We’ll have to compromise somewhere.
Friday. The next instalment. Be there.
"Joe Gomez is just an idea"...heavy sigh...sadly. Anxiously awaiting this window.
Yeah, looking forward to this series.
Saliba and Van Hecke are the ones I expect the suits to be moving heaven and earth to add to our squad.
Van Hecke is obtainable, maybe not this Winter though.
Saliba might become obtainable this summer or next. Arsenal have manoeuvred themselves into a position where they have to sell one of their stars eventually, due to their lack of sales.
There were rumours that Saliba considered running his last contract down, before he decided to extend, stating he did not want to leave the club without winning anything. So in any case, this sounds like it is his last extension. Would Arsenal rather sell to a rival and get the fee or loose him on a free?
Richard go get them!