Season Preview: 2025/26
Your annual glimpse into the future.
Here we go. The day has arrived.
After a three-month hiatus, the Premier League is back in business. Liverpool will start the new campaign as champions. The holders. The team to beat. But will they retain their crown this term?
Let’s get into it.
So plenty has changed since the Reds lifted the title in May. We forecasted plenty of incomings and outgoings on this Substack, but Richard Hughes has exceeded even our expectations.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Díaz, Darwin Núñez, Jarell Quansah and Caoimhin Kelleher have all departed, with Harvey Elliott, Kostas Tsimikas, Ben Doak and Federico Chiesa likely to join them in the coming weeks.
Those players have been replaced by Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Hugo Ekitiké, with a certain Alexander Isak waiting for the green light to move to Merseyside, alongside Marc Guehi and Giovanni Leoni.
That’s one hell of a transfer window. Massive. It’s Miss World winning the lot and then getting a face lift. And even if Liverpool appear stronger on paper, you can’t not account for that level of turnover.
John Henry thinks upheaval is a swear word. Liverpool’s success has stemmed from continuity over the past decade, but they’re navigating a real shift here and it’s difficult to forecast how much that’ll impact things on the pitch this season.
Over a longer period of time, the Reds will benefit from this. No doubt. Build the core of your new squad at once, allow those guys to peak together, and upheaval doesn’t happen again until AI has taken over the world in 2035. Perfect.
But in the here and now, it’s reasonable to suggest Liverpool will encounter some teething problems, with a few emerging during pre-season against the likes of Crystal Palace and AC Milan.
How much of an impact will the current period of change have on this season? It’s kinda impossible to tell right now. And that’s what’s exciting.
Liverpool claimed top spot with four games to spare last season, at which point, Arne Slot’s men had scored 15 times more than any other side in the division, while also boasting the second-best defensive record having conceded just three goals more than Mikel Arteta’s Stoke City Arsenal.
Crucially, the Reds looked just as healthy under the hood. Liverpool created shots worth about two goals per match based on xG, while giving away chances worth just 0.8 goals per match until they claimed the title, at which point the defence completely nosedived.
So once combining both sides of the game, the difference between what Liverpool created minus what they gave away each week was around +1.2 xG. That was the margin for error. Great stuff. Things could go wrong to the tune of 1.2 xG — like a red card or one of those mad finishing days — and Liverpool would still be fine. That’s taking care of your own destiny.
Below, you’ll find every Premier League side that finished last season with a positive xG differential. The good teams. If your boys aren’t pictured, sorry. You should probably find another team to support.
Nobody else posted close to the Reds. Arsenal ranked second on +0.67. And it’s worth nothing the best barometer for your next points total is basically whatever you accumulated in the season before. There tends to be a 70 per cent correlation.
That, alongside the level of investment in the squad of late, is why Liverpool are being painted as heavy favourites.
It’s interesting to consider how much of that +1.2 will remain, given the number of players sold. No Alexander-Arnold, Díaz or Núñez. But I’m inclined to think the offensive end will be fine, with Liverpool likely to get plenty of output from Wirtz, Kerkez, Ekitiké, Frimpong and — hopefully — Isak. Aim for 90 goals.
The biggest question mark for me lies on the defensive end, and how that tends to relate to your level of control on the pitch, with less control generally delivering more injuries. It’s a downward spiral.
I’ve already addressed some of my concerns. Liverpool have not been good against the ball this summer. A high full-back duo combined with a lack of care in possession is a disaster waiting to happen.
I’m confident in my belief that if Liverpool struggle at all this season, their issues will stem from a lack of cohesion without the ball. Things like when to press, when to retreat, who to press, when to circulate possession, when to try the killer ball, when to overlap or underlap.
You can almost defend on autopilot when you’ve been playing as the same united entity for years. But now, with new faces up top and at the back, Slot’s coaching will be tested. The influence of Jürgen Klopp is fading. Now is the time to work.
A preview wouldn’t be complete without touching on some of our rivals. Like, Liverpool might amass 100 points this term, but that won’t matter if Arsenal manage to post 101.
Three-and-a-half sides have a shout for the title as far as I’m concerned. Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and — kinda — Chelsea. Let’s start with the Gunners.
