So we have a tradition on this Substack. It’s my job to preview every Premier League season just before the first whistle, but there’s a problem this time around. I can’t ever remember it being this difficult to forecast what lies ahead.
Nevertheless, I’m here to have a go. Let’s see where we end up. Strap yourselves in.
First, I’d like to set the scene. It’s important to capture exactly why the new campaign is looking almost impossible to predict, and not just from a Liverpool perspective, either.
So since the final game of last season, nine of the 20 clubs in the Premier League have appointed new managers. That’s the most ever. Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Fulham, Ipswich Town, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.
Indeed, Andoni Iraola’s first six games will come against newbies. He won’t face anyone who has been in charge for longer than six months until Keith Andrews hosts the Reds in the middle of October.
On top of that, the tactical landscape in the division is weird right now, and that’s probably an understatement. Over the course of the last 12 months in particular, Premier League football has basically gone back in time.
We’ve witnessed the return of long throws, a reliance on set-pieces and goalkeepers suddenly launching aimless balls up the field as opposed to building from the back. High pressing has declined to a certain extent, with every team becoming obsessed with man-marking and good ol’ individual duels.
Speaking earlier this year, Mikel Arteta said: “The biggest issue is the man-to-man [defending]. If all the managers agree you cannot defend man-to-man, tomorrow you’re going to have a different league. I guarantee you a different league.”
New City boss Enzo Maresca recently opened up about the phenomenon, too, stating: “Compared to three years ago, the big difference is set-pieces and everyone goes man-to-man. I don’t know when, but I think there’s going to be a bit of change. We know many do it, so we start trying to find a solution. I don’t know how long teams will continue man-to-man.”
It’s such a strange environment out there. And it’s unclear how the climate will shift over the course of the next 12 months given the sudden emergence of old-school habits last year.
Whatever happens, it’ll influence things.
And then you’ve got Liverpool. Iraola has never managed more than 45 games in a single season in Europe’s top five leagues. This season, he’ll probably oversee around 60.
It’s unclear how his fitness demands will impact his squad, with Liverpool seemingly accustomed to days off and sporadic trips to Ibiza and Dubai towards the end of Arne Slot’s tenure.
With Iraola upholding such an intense playing style, could we have an injury crisis on our hands by Christmas? I mean, it feels entirely possible given the lack of depth in some areas of the squad, which ties in nicely with my next point.
I expected Liverpool to have a pretty busy summer on the transfer front, but it hasn’t quite materialised so far. Nobody has been sold yet. Not a single player, including Curtis Jones at the time of writing this post. And as for incomings, Richard Hughes has only added Víctor Muñoz and Jérémy Jacquet — who agreed to join in January — with Ronald Araújo also arriving on loan.
So as of right now, the Reds really aren’t that different to last season. Muñoz has essentially replaced Mohamed Salah, and Jacquet has replaced Ibrahima Konaté, with Araújo the only real gain in terms of numbers.
Liverpool are gambling on Rio Ngumoha making another leap in his development, and Alexander Isak, Giovanni Leoni and Jeremie Frimpong showcasing normal levels of fitness, with tons of emphasis placed on landing Bradley Barcola — and perhaps Yankuba Minteh — in the next fortnight.
If Iraola rolls a six in all of those cases, his players could have a genuinely good season. Liverpool do have a group of elite individuals, after all. But the squad has become top-heavy and lob-sided as a result of acquiring them.
So now that we’ve established the minefield that we’re playing on, it’s worth thinking about the stuff that truly matters. The details that’ll ultimately decide where Liverpool finish. Scoring and conceding goals.
