Off topic - I’m a data analytics professor. My university is in Japan and I’m in Liverpool next week (originally from there). I’m visiting family and going to the game on Saturday.
Two questions:
1) grab a coffee? short notice I know. I’ve some thoughts and analysis on modeling football as a network rather than atomic/agents - think what comes after moneyball.
2) I remember you mentioning you’ll be in Japan later in the year. I’m which case would you care you give a short talk at the university. I can pay transport (say from Tokyo) and there is a fee.
Superb Josh. With Jacquet and Araujo in the fold, I'm thinking the wiggly worms eating at my optimism now are defending setpieces and Maccas lack of athleticism having to be 1 of 4 mids . All said and done, given time Iraola will make us proud of our football again.
“People automatically assume that whenever an opponent receives the ball between the lines, it’s because the holding midfielder is at fault. It can be nothing else. If we had a proper defensive midfielder, that wouldn’t happen. The classics.”
I have a question for Josh, but anyone can ask it. I would love to sit down with a tactics board and talk about this topic for HOURS with all of you (especially Josh) but short version:
Would you rather press out of a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3, or a 4-4-2 or even a 3-4-3?
I know all systems are now fluid and every team shifts all over. I also know personnel contributes to so much of this, but all things as equal as possible - which system with the most generalized personnel for that system would you most want to use to build your press?
Personally, having watched the 2018-2022 Klopp teams, I think his no holds barred 4-3-3- that turned into almost a 2 (CB/CB) - 1 (DM) - 4 (FB/8/8/FB - 3 (LW/False 9/RW) is the best press possible. However, before LFC, Klopp consistently played with the 4-2-3-1, and at teams he would pull that out at LFC or even use his 4-2-4.
I think people would be blown away by how many games Henderson started at the 6 for Klopp. Fabinho was great at it, but he also always had two of Gini, Hendo, Ox, Milner, Naby, Jones and even Shaq covering him on both sides doing the running. He also had Firmino in front of him almost shielding the MF.
I would personally say a team of athletes that can run playing a 4-3-3 with high FBs and a true 6 sitting in the middle would the way I built a team. The best Pep teams were similarly built out of possession, his players just held the ball once they regained it they had Messi to eventually unlock defenses, whereas Klopp's players immediately advanced the ball vertically one they regained it. A 4-2-3-1 gives you more forward players to immediately press, but I think I would rather press with those 3 at the front to direct them into places where the MFers are waiting to spring the trap. I would rather have that extra midfielder rather than a forward/10.
With Wirtz and Isak, I just do not think LFC can play any version of a 4-3-3 unless we put Wirtz at LW or have him play false 9 and push Isak out to the LW. Neither of those seem ideal to get the best out of either player. I am beginning to think we bought them because Slot really did just look at the game as we attack with four players Gakpo, Isak, Salah, and Wirtz, and we defend with four players and two can join the attack but then come back. Those two could rotate between our double pivot and FBs as long as two always stay home. Not pressing/defending as a single huge unit left the wide open spaces in the middle of the park and made it incredibly hard to really put pressure on the opposition because they could constantly get outballs.
I am now rambling. I will end with: I think in the Premier League you need to play with 3 true midfielders if you want to press effectively or you will end up in a lot of basketball games.
IIRC Klopp said that he went to the 433 because it was easier to learn the pressing system.. then it worked so well he stuck with it. But I think Bobby largely made that system work, and it’s often forgotten how physical he was… Bobby could play back to goal, hold up the ball, move it with the flicks, challenge for headers.
I always thought minamino looked like he could do the false 9 but when played centrally he just didn’t have the physicality for it.
Wirtz, Isak, great players who press a lot but not really back to goal physicality.
I think people give both players a hard rap based on last season.. which isn’t fair. Even then, Wirtz covered huge distances and presses a lot, I think it’s more the system didn’t work. And Isak gets a hell of a lot of final 3rd regains.
Fundamentally though.. I think a lot of Klopp genius was in the small variations. You’d often hear him after a match talking about the small changes to shape and pressing and positioning which made the difference.
So I would say peak Liverpool were really 2125/235 in rest defence under Klopp.. and pressed from that shape, with our fullbacks pressing against there’s..
More recently, teams often press in a shape based on opposition teams build up shapes.. so you often see a 424/244 shape to press man 4 man against a back 4 and a double pivot..
I think it’s really about the small tweaks, the triggers etc as if you just build up or press in the same way every time then with the amount of analysis teams will adapt..
Always fun to see how many teammates of Firmino say he was the best player they played with! I think he was also incredibly smart at being able to funnel the ball to the areas LFC wanted to trap the opposition. Bobby was a tactical Swiss Army Knife.
I think a lot of the pressing now is man rather than zonal so 4 at the top makes sense, but I think a true midfield "lighthouse" as Fabinho was called is a huge advantage to pressing. It takes away the halfspace in the middle while keeping the CBs from being pulled around. A double pivot in front of a CB pairing just seems to cause a lot of problems on who is covering the half-space, that is probably what Klopp meant as a 4-3-3 is easier to use.
It’s changed - when Klopp (&pep) started here the league was still full of pundits attacking keepers for not launching it.
now every team plays out from the back, every team presses, some teams have gone full circle and launch it to beat the press.
Fabinho was key as a tall player who can win headers; this allowed our CB’s to stay back and cover as one of them didn’t have to come forward into the DM space to win the header.
this means you can press high, commit numbers and if teams go long you are well placed to win the ball.
see also why LFC have a real physical profile for CB’s - 6ft5, rapid, 1 vs 1 monsters… This simply allows you to control space more as you can push high, press, pin teams back and be covered from counters and long balls.
You also need recovery pace and stamina..
the main thing about pressing, rather then any particular shape being better, is the coordination.
so with Areola’s system last couple of years, when they press high the key figure is one of the 6’s jumping to join and one of the CB’s stepping forward to fill that gap.
But you have to have all the players blocking passing lanes and pressuring passes, otherwise you have two guys running forward and gaps to move and pass into.
I would still say the major difference between our press and defence in slots first year to second was that all the players in the first year had played and pressed together for multiple years..
and last year our front 4 was new to each other, always changing, new to league.. so whilst we did miss the gas and intensity of Diaz, Jota, Nunez… also we missed the coordination and experience together,
Would you keep Gakpo in this system? Assuming we get Barcola and maybe Mbaye. Or do we snatch the money from Spurs if they are willing to give us £80mil?
I think Gakpo might have to fund Barcola. But I’ve said for most of the summer that Liverpool haven’t got enough forwards in the squad to let Gakpo leave.
I think it would be madness to replace a proven Prem goalscorer with two young, untested players.
They might hit the ground running, or they might not.
Of the new players we introduced last season, only Kerkez avoided injury.
Barcola will be used to a high energy system but not the volume of games and not at Prem intensity.
Based on the Pre season games, I think we are more likely to try and find a home for some of the peripheral players like Chiesa and Elliot.
The only problem there is the fees will be low. But we did announce 700m profits. If 400m of that is wages, that still leaves a good chunk for fees, and having Mo and Robbo off the wage bill should help on that side (although Barcola and Araujo will absorb most of that).
Hi Josh
Off topic - I’m a data analytics professor. My university is in Japan and I’m in Liverpool next week (originally from there). I’m visiting family and going to the game on Saturday.
Two questions:
1) grab a coffee? short notice I know. I’ve some thoughts and analysis on modeling football as a network rather than atomic/agents - think what comes after moneyball.
2) I remember you mentioning you’ll be in Japan later in the year. I’m which case would you care you give a short talk at the university. I can pay transport (say from Tokyo) and there is a fee.
Be an interesting season.
Thanks for all your good work.
Best, John
Well this is a comment I didn’t expect to read and that’s definitely an understatement. Sounds good mate, would love to meet.
Send me an email at joshwilliams.football@gmail.com and we can go from there.
Thanks for the analysis Josh.
Although the general opinion is that several pieces are missing from this team, I'm quite optimistic for the season.
IF (a big IF , i know) we will not have big injuries, i can see the 3rd position minimum.
And IF the Gods are with us (to compensate us for the horrors of last season)...well, i don't say it out loud but...🤞😁
Superb Josh. With Jacquet and Araujo in the fold, I'm thinking the wiggly worms eating at my optimism now are defending setpieces and Maccas lack of athleticism having to be 1 of 4 mids . All said and done, given time Iraola will make us proud of our football again.
Waited for this all day. It did not disappoint.
“People automatically assume that whenever an opponent receives the ball between the lines, it’s because the holding midfielder is at fault. It can be nothing else. If we had a proper defensive midfielder, that wouldn’t happen. The classics.”
In the voice of Bart Simpson, “Testify!”
I have a question for Josh, but anyone can ask it. I would love to sit down with a tactics board and talk about this topic for HOURS with all of you (especially Josh) but short version:
Would you rather press out of a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3, or a 4-4-2 or even a 3-4-3?
I know all systems are now fluid and every team shifts all over. I also know personnel contributes to so much of this, but all things as equal as possible - which system with the most generalized personnel for that system would you most want to use to build your press?
Personally, having watched the 2018-2022 Klopp teams, I think his no holds barred 4-3-3- that turned into almost a 2 (CB/CB) - 1 (DM) - 4 (FB/8/8/FB - 3 (LW/False 9/RW) is the best press possible. However, before LFC, Klopp consistently played with the 4-2-3-1, and at teams he would pull that out at LFC or even use his 4-2-4.
I think people would be blown away by how many games Henderson started at the 6 for Klopp. Fabinho was great at it, but he also always had two of Gini, Hendo, Ox, Milner, Naby, Jones and even Shaq covering him on both sides doing the running. He also had Firmino in front of him almost shielding the MF.
I would personally say a team of athletes that can run playing a 4-3-3 with high FBs and a true 6 sitting in the middle would the way I built a team. The best Pep teams were similarly built out of possession, his players just held the ball once they regained it they had Messi to eventually unlock defenses, whereas Klopp's players immediately advanced the ball vertically one they regained it. A 4-2-3-1 gives you more forward players to immediately press, but I think I would rather press with those 3 at the front to direct them into places where the MFers are waiting to spring the trap. I would rather have that extra midfielder rather than a forward/10.
With Wirtz and Isak, I just do not think LFC can play any version of a 4-3-3 unless we put Wirtz at LW or have him play false 9 and push Isak out to the LW. Neither of those seem ideal to get the best out of either player. I am beginning to think we bought them because Slot really did just look at the game as we attack with four players Gakpo, Isak, Salah, and Wirtz, and we defend with four players and two can join the attack but then come back. Those two could rotate between our double pivot and FBs as long as two always stay home. Not pressing/defending as a single huge unit left the wide open spaces in the middle of the park and made it incredibly hard to really put pressure on the opposition because they could constantly get outballs.
I am now rambling. I will end with: I think in the Premier League you need to play with 3 true midfielders if you want to press effectively or you will end up in a lot of basketball games.
IIRC Klopp said that he went to the 433 because it was easier to learn the pressing system.. then it worked so well he stuck with it. But I think Bobby largely made that system work, and it’s often forgotten how physical he was… Bobby could play back to goal, hold up the ball, move it with the flicks, challenge for headers.
I always thought minamino looked like he could do the false 9 but when played centrally he just didn’t have the physicality for it.
Wirtz, Isak, great players who press a lot but not really back to goal physicality.
I think people give both players a hard rap based on last season.. which isn’t fair. Even then, Wirtz covered huge distances and presses a lot, I think it’s more the system didn’t work. And Isak gets a hell of a lot of final 3rd regains.
Fundamentally though.. I think a lot of Klopp genius was in the small variations. You’d often hear him after a match talking about the small changes to shape and pressing and positioning which made the difference.
So I would say peak Liverpool were really 2125/235 in rest defence under Klopp.. and pressed from that shape, with our fullbacks pressing against there’s..
More recently, teams often press in a shape based on opposition teams build up shapes.. so you often see a 424/244 shape to press man 4 man against a back 4 and a double pivot..
I think it’s really about the small tweaks, the triggers etc as if you just build up or press in the same way every time then with the amount of analysis teams will adapt..
Always fun to see how many teammates of Firmino say he was the best player they played with! I think he was also incredibly smart at being able to funnel the ball to the areas LFC wanted to trap the opposition. Bobby was a tactical Swiss Army Knife.
I think a lot of the pressing now is man rather than zonal so 4 at the top makes sense, but I think a true midfield "lighthouse" as Fabinho was called is a huge advantage to pressing. It takes away the halfspace in the middle while keeping the CBs from being pulled around. A double pivot in front of a CB pairing just seems to cause a lot of problems on who is covering the half-space, that is probably what Klopp meant as a 4-3-3 is easier to use.
It’s changed - when Klopp (&pep) started here the league was still full of pundits attacking keepers for not launching it.
now every team plays out from the back, every team presses, some teams have gone full circle and launch it to beat the press.
Fabinho was key as a tall player who can win headers; this allowed our CB’s to stay back and cover as one of them didn’t have to come forward into the DM space to win the header.
this means you can press high, commit numbers and if teams go long you are well placed to win the ball.
see also why LFC have a real physical profile for CB’s - 6ft5, rapid, 1 vs 1 monsters… This simply allows you to control space more as you can push high, press, pin teams back and be covered from counters and long balls.
You also need recovery pace and stamina..
the main thing about pressing, rather then any particular shape being better, is the coordination.
so with Areola’s system last couple of years, when they press high the key figure is one of the 6’s jumping to join and one of the CB’s stepping forward to fill that gap.
But you have to have all the players blocking passing lanes and pressuring passes, otherwise you have two guys running forward and gaps to move and pass into.
I would still say the major difference between our press and defence in slots first year to second was that all the players in the first year had played and pressed together for multiple years..
and last year our front 4 was new to each other, always changing, new to league.. so whilst we did miss the gas and intensity of Diaz, Jota, Nunez… also we missed the coordination and experience together,
Would you keep Gakpo in this system? Assuming we get Barcola and maybe Mbaye. Or do we snatch the money from Spurs if they are willing to give us £80mil?
I think Gakpo might have to fund Barcola. But I’ve said for most of the summer that Liverpool haven’t got enough forwards in the squad to let Gakpo leave.
I think it would be madness to replace a proven Prem goalscorer with two young, untested players.
They might hit the ground running, or they might not.
Of the new players we introduced last season, only Kerkez avoided injury.
Barcola will be used to a high energy system but not the volume of games and not at Prem intensity.
Based on the Pre season games, I think we are more likely to try and find a home for some of the peripheral players like Chiesa and Elliot.
The only problem there is the fees will be low. But we did announce 700m profits. If 400m of that is wages, that still leaves a good chunk for fees, and having Mo and Robbo off the wage bill should help on that side (although Barcola and Araujo will absorb most of that).