The Hustler Returns
Will Andoni Iraola try to steal Ibrahima Konaté's wallet again?
Remember when Liverpool beat Southampton by three goals to two earlier this season? For those who can’t quite recall, that’s when Mohamed Salah went viral for talking about his contract situation after the game. So selfish. Long time ago, wasn’t it?
Well, that’s when Bournemouth last experienced defeat. Since, they’ve played 12 matches in all competition without suffering from a single loss, scoring 2.5 goals per game while conceding just 0.8 per game at the opposite end.
Bournemouth’s hot run of form is no fluke. They are one of the most well-coached outfits on the continent. And this weekend, they’ll host Liverpool at the Vitality Stadium, just 24 hours before Arsenal face Manchester City at the Emirates.
Two weeks ago, I said I didn’t write match previews. I lied. Maybe I do.
I’ve been thinking about this one for a few weeks now. It won’t be an easy game by any stretch of the imagination, because the Cherries are genuinely good.
If you’ve followed this Substack since the very start, you’ll know I’m heavy on establishing a busy attack and a quiet defence. That’s how you deliver success in my book. Fix your process, and everything else will follow suit.
It’s about weighting the coin in your favour by ensuring that a lot would have to go wrong for your team to lose. That means creating 20 shots from inside the penalty box. It means facing five shots from 30 yards out.
Well, xG difference per match is probably the best metric we’ve got to gauge which teams are getting probability on their side in that sense. It’s very simple. The metric is just what you create in attack, minus what you give away in defence.
The metric doesn’t know how good your players are. It doesn’t know the result of any of your matches, either. It only knows how much better — or worse — you played in comparison to your opponents specifically when it comes to creating valuable shots versus giving them away.
Across multiple different data providers, Bournemouth are the third-best side in the division. Liverpool are facing a really good team on Saturday afternoon. You’re best recognising that now. You don’t want to be that supporter who realises halfway through the contest.
I wrote a piece on Bournemouth when they last faced Liverpool, and it’s still very relevant. You can read that here. I likened Andoni Iraola to a hustler at the time, with Ibrahima Konaté playing the role of his unsuspecting mark.
Bournemouth are known for pressing high. They’re very good at it. When Iraola brought his side to Anfield in September, his players seemed to target Konaté by encouraging Arne Slot’s possession game to run through him, as shown below. He posted more than twice as many (!!) touches as Virgil van Dijk’s total of 58, despite being stood right next to him.
