The Tightrope
Nottingham Forest, then.
This Substack has been running for almost a year now, and I’ve covered a whole host of topics in that time, from finishing to food to scouting to superstition to Superman. But I’ve refrained from posting a single match preview.
There are a few reasons behind that. You can get previews anywhere, they fall out of date pretty quickly, and isolated matches don’t tend to matter that much within the grand scheme of things.
However, I’m making an exception this week. I’ll be honest, I didn’t think my first preview would be dedicated to Nottingham Forest, but here we are.
Tuesday’s bout feels big.
So if you’re reading this after the event, apologies. Hopefully Liverpool won by six goals to nil. But supporters almost seem to be dreading this one, there’s a sense of caution on Merseyside. A nervousness.
Forest are third in the Premier League table. They have the same number of points as Arsenal after 20 games — which is truly nuts — and they haven’t conceded a single goal since well before Christmas, keeping five clean sheets in a row.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have won seven games on the bounce in all competitions, they have the exact same number of points at this stage of the season as Leicester City did when they won the title in 2016, and they’re scheduled to host our beloved Liverpool on Tuesday night.
Oh, and just to make the whole thing a bit more dramatic, Arne Slot lost just one match (!!) in 90 minutes throughout the entirety of 2024, in charge of both Liverpool and Feyenoord. That loss came against — yeah, you guessed it — Forest.
I know, I’ll admit, the landscape doesn’t look particularly favourable. This is going to be a proper test. And it makes for an especially interesting tactical contest, too. Why? Because both Slot and Nuno will get exactly what they want, in a weird sort of way.
The former is all about the ball. Possession, control, dominance, all that stuff. Whereas the latter has always favoured more of a counter-attacking brand of football, specialising in disciplined blocks and direct passes.
Slot will likely be presented with as much possession as he wants. Nuno won’t care as long as his players remain active and ready to pounce upon the smallest mistake within Liverpool’s ranks.
That’s why the Tricky Trees have been so successful this term. They can soak pressure with ease, absorbing punch after punch as a compact unit until you make an error, at which point, they’ll go for your throat.
You play your game. We’ll play ours. May the best team win.
I’ve got a few concerns ahead of the clash. Liverpool will see plenty of the ball, and Forest will do everything they can to provoke the Reds into making a stray pass or taking a heavy touch.
If you’re Slot, you’re walking a tightrope here. You need your players to feel free enough to try things to dismantle one of the best defences in England, but you’ve also got to convince them to be super careful, otherwise we’ll get opened up going the other way.
That’s exactly what happened in September. Forest didn’t create a single shot until the 55th minute at Anfield, but with the scores still level, Liverpool started to get silly in their attempts to score, allowing Nuno’s men to break and score the only goal of the game.
Tuesday’s game will almost act as a gauge for what Slot’s players have picked up from him over the past six months, because we’re going to have to be patient and cute with our possession. Don’t force it. Only accelerate things when your defence is set. Don’t shoot from 30 yards, even if you can’t find openings.
Indeed, two of Nuno’s sharpest tools look destined to be deployed against Trent Alexander-Arnold and — likely — Andy Robertson, neither of whom have covered themselves in glory of late.
Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi are rapid. They are both faster than you, especially the former. Yes, Chris Wood is experiencing a really efficient campaign in front of goal, but those two wide guys against our full-back duo is what worries me.
If you want to worry too, watch the two clips below.
I’m giving Forest plenty of credit here, and they do deserve it, but no — in answer to the question that you’re all subliminally asking me — I don’t think they can win the Premier League.
Nuno’s outfit are great, but we talk about probability quite a lot on this Substack, and they don’t quite get that on their side enough to persist with the same degree of impressive form across their next 18 games.
You only need to take a glance at Forest’s actual and underlying numbers to realise they aren’t quite doing enough to truly guard against the element of chance that often runs wild in football.
When something happens that isn’t part of the plan — and that happens a lot in this sport — you fall back on your base performance level to get you out of trouble. Well, Forest are relatively ordinary in that department. Understat’s expected points model has them ninth in the table, for example.
They keep scoring first, that’s one of their major strengths. In fact, they’ve spent just 14.6 per cent of the campaign trailing, which is virtually identical to Liverpool on 14.2 per cent.
But what happens when you go behind a bit more? What happens when Wood stops converting 29 per cent of his shots into goals? What happens when Ola Aina’s efforts from outside the penalty box stop going in?
Things just happen in football. Red cards, penalties, deflections. The team that wins the Premier League is usually the one that copes the best with those setbacks and/or suffers the fewest across 38 matches.
Forest’s superpower is their defence. They keep securing clean sheets, and there’s no major reason to suggest that won’t keep happening. Sure, they face more shots than ten other sides in the division, but they still have the third-best defence according to non-penalty xG because those shots tend to originate from poor locations.
Nuno’s players have a knack for encouraging their opponents to shoot from distance. And they always have plenty of bodies between the shooter and their goal. A brick wall. Very Atletico Madrid. Don’t give them a lead.
All things considered, this one looks finely poised. Liverpool are coming up against an excellent and efficient counter-attacking side who are very comfortable when required to suffer without the ball for a bit.
Forest are difficult to break down and because of that, their opponents often end up trying too hard before losing the ball in the process and conceding a goal ten seconds later.
Liverpool will need to be creative and safe at the same time. Slot must establish that delicate balance. Look, but don’t stare. Be funny, but don’t make them laugh.
Let’s see what happens. Time to walk the tightrope.
In keeping with individual results don’t matter that much in the grand scheme of things, I’d be fine with a draw here.
Don’t play into Forests hands too much. Keep it tight ourselves, don’t go chasing it too much and hope for a bit of quality or luck to win the match, or win it with our subs (like we did at Forest last season).
People won’t like a draw on the back of our recent results, but it’s the bigger picture. The target is 85pts plus and 1 at Forest is fine.
Forecasting a win. This is a team a shit City put to the sword 3 nil. Backing the lads to snap back in