Too Much Noise
Have Liverpool been good or lucky so far?
There are tons of metrics surrounding football nowadays. The man on the street might even argue there’s too many. Quantifying everything is cool, but it’s important to focus on what matters.
Well, xG difference is probably the most informative data point in the public space when analysing team performance. We use it a lot on this Substack, because it covers the most important stuff.
In simple terms, xG difference tells us how each team generally compares to their opponents from week to week strictly when it comes to creating good chances versus giving them up. In other words, the entire point of football.
The overriding purpose in this sport is creating loads of opportunities to score, without giving away any at the opposite end. The busy attack and quiet defence combo, in an ideal world. Not rocket science.
Last season, for example, Liverpool’s xG difference was about +1.2 per match. That means over the course of 38 matches, the Reds created around 1.2 xG more than their opponents in each game. That’s seriously healthy and suggests Arne Slot’s men very much took care of their results with the extent of their performances.
For context, the next-best side was Arsenal on +0.7 per match followed by Manchester City and Chelsea on +0.5. Shock, all of those teams finished inside the top four. Southampton averaged the worst xG difference on -1.37 per match. Shock, they finished bottom by a landslide.
It’s almost like this stuff works. You subscribed for a reason, right?
Alright, here’s the interesting part.
Right now, Liverpool are top of the Premier League having won all three of their fixtures. Great. They’re also tenth in the division for xG difference per match. Not so great.
Indeed, Slot’s men have largely performed to the same level as their opponents across each of their first three games, posting a beige +0.1 per match. In other words, no dominance. You have a go, we have a go. Even. Par.
Now, it’s extremely important to note that I shouldn’t really be addressing these numbers until Christmas at the earliest. You need a decent sample to gather genuine findings.
But nevertheless, the numbers do offer an insight into the weird nature of Liverpool’s start. Three wins, top of the tree, but all without playing particularly well.
We like process on this Substack. We believe in probability. You win leagues by dominating your opponents. And you dominate your opponents by creating loads and restricting them from doing the same.
Late winners are cool. But you can’t rely on them. Liverpool have benefited from three of those inside the past month. No more, please. Start being boring and inevitable again.
