This is awesome Josh. I’m enjoying these pieces so much. Following your line of thought, my next curiosity is wondering about year over year change in these differentials for a) first year coaches improving teams they take over and b) for multi-year coaches comparing differential change from one year to the next in proportion to net spend in transfer market. (Did managers convert transfer money spent into increased progressive/penalty box chances?)
Ian Graham talked about data on coaches improving players..
There is a huge pattern of players shining under klopp, and struggling afterwards. It would be interesting to compare pre-klopp, klopp and post klopp numbers on some of his signings for Mainz, Dortmund and LFC.
… just because there is so much data there due to longevity.
Interesting to then see patterns and see whether those match or compare to other managers
Really enjoying these articles mate! One (slightly mad) question I have is should we keep Ten Hag in mind as a cautionary example when appointing our next manager?
I remember for years before United appointed him he was hailed as the next great tactician, and had the improbable CL run on his CV, yet he’s come to the Premier League and looked immediately out of his depth and like yesterday’s man.
My question is, do you think he was overhyped from his time at Ajax or do you think there’s any lessons we can learn to avoid making a similar mistake like United did in appointing him?
That's a good question. On this week's pod, we actually talked about Ten Hag and how his failed spell at Man Utd so far effectively sums up how problematic this sort of analysis is. My personal opinion is that he's struggled because a) he's sacrificed his principles because of the massive demand for results and b) he's basically ran the recruitment on his own and he's not very good at it.
Thanks for the reply mate! Looking forward to listening to the pod. So what you’re saying is to empower the manager we need to get the Sporting Director and structure right - I’ve still got my fingers crossed that Edwards will come back.
Wow Josh, fuckin' love this mate. I get how hard it is totally, but even attempting to put a number(s) down to quantify this is so interesting, and then seeing the names pop up. I have no doubt that you will have put massive amounts of careful thought and consideration in to what metrics will be relevant and how you could build a picture, but its going to be really interesting to see who is in that frame come the end. Keep it up mate!
Fascinating! It’s such a mad thing to try and analyse.
It’s funny though, the chart doing the rounds with regards to Alonso has been about the no of passes and long passes, or direct attacks (IIRC) where Bayer where an outlier to everyone else
Always felt this wasn’t really an effective way to measure if a manager was suitable or good or suited, just a difference in styles this year..
I do think there's some value in highlighting stylistic differences as that sort of thing prepares supporters for what to expect from the potential new man. In terms of those numbers offering any insight into quality or managerial level, though, I agree with you. It's important to go deeper.
This is awesome Josh. I’m enjoying these pieces so much. Following your line of thought, my next curiosity is wondering about year over year change in these differentials for a) first year coaches improving teams they take over and b) for multi-year coaches comparing differential change from one year to the next in proportion to net spend in transfer market. (Did managers convert transfer money spent into increased progressive/penalty box chances?)
Can’t wait for next pod/article. Cheers
That’s a really interesting idea.
Ian Graham talked about data on coaches improving players..
There is a huge pattern of players shining under klopp, and struggling afterwards. It would be interesting to compare pre-klopp, klopp and post klopp numbers on some of his signings for Mainz, Dortmund and LFC.
… just because there is so much data there due to longevity.
Interesting to then see patterns and see whether those match or compare to other managers
Really enjoying these articles mate! One (slightly mad) question I have is should we keep Ten Hag in mind as a cautionary example when appointing our next manager?
I remember for years before United appointed him he was hailed as the next great tactician, and had the improbable CL run on his CV, yet he’s come to the Premier League and looked immediately out of his depth and like yesterday’s man.
My question is, do you think he was overhyped from his time at Ajax or do you think there’s any lessons we can learn to avoid making a similar mistake like United did in appointing him?
That's a good question. On this week's pod, we actually talked about Ten Hag and how his failed spell at Man Utd so far effectively sums up how problematic this sort of analysis is. My personal opinion is that he's struggled because a) he's sacrificed his principles because of the massive demand for results and b) he's basically ran the recruitment on his own and he's not very good at it.
Thanks for the reply mate! Looking forward to listening to the pod. So what you’re saying is to empower the manager we need to get the Sporting Director and structure right - I’ve still got my fingers crossed that Edwards will come back.
Wow Josh, fuckin' love this mate. I get how hard it is totally, but even attempting to put a number(s) down to quantify this is so interesting, and then seeing the names pop up. I have no doubt that you will have put massive amounts of careful thought and consideration in to what metrics will be relevant and how you could build a picture, but its going to be really interesting to see who is in that frame come the end. Keep it up mate!
Thanks Gavin. I'll be honest, I didn't quite know what I was getting myself into, but at least it's interesting. Lots of relevant names popping up.
Fascinating! It’s such a mad thing to try and analyse.
It’s funny though, the chart doing the rounds with regards to Alonso has been about the no of passes and long passes, or direct attacks (IIRC) where Bayer where an outlier to everyone else
Always felt this wasn’t really an effective way to measure if a manager was suitable or good or suited, just a difference in styles this year..
Looking forward to seeing more!
I do think there's some value in highlighting stylistic differences as that sort of thing prepares supporters for what to expect from the potential new man. In terms of those numbers offering any insight into quality or managerial level, though, I agree with you. It's important to go deeper.
Awesome work Josh! Any chance we add Arne Slot to this analysis now that Amorim is unlikely?