Scouting Centre-Backs: Part 2
The second instalment of a series dedicated to finding a new centre-back for Liverpool.
Alright, here we go.
Earlier this week, I put together a bit of an introduction to this series. In this post, we’re going delve into the data to see who shines, and who doesn’t. And just to be clear, I’ve got no idea where we’ll end up. I’m doing this very much on the fly.
Let’s make a start.
So I’ve got a sample of 2,372 players who have spent this season playing in one of Europe’s big five leagues here. We need to make that much smaller by filtering out the players who aren’t relevant.
To do so, let’s begin with three very basic filters. I only want players who have amassed at least 900 minutes on the pitch this term. Equivalent to ten full matches, of course. I only want players categorised as defenders. And I only want players aged 26 or under.
We go from 2,372 players to 152. Just like that. But we need more. So now, I’m going to filter out a few more weeds by setting one extremely low bar relating to aerial success.
It’s simple. If you haven’t won at least 50 per cent of your aerial duels this season, you’re out. We go from 152 options to 106. Some very notable fallers at this hurdle, including Micky van de Ven, Arthur Theate, Bafodé Diakité and Illia Zabarnyi.
Now, I’m going to manually exclude the players who are clearly full-backs, while making the odd exception for those who could still perform at centre-back.
Djed Spence is gone, for example. Diogo Dalot, also gone. But Jurrien Timber stays. As does Joško Gvardiol. You get the picture. We go from 106 players to just 79.
At this point, I’d ordinarily include a few more filters, but it’s difficult with centre-backs. We need to be really careful. Virgil van Dijk doesn’t make enough tackles to clear even the smallest hurdle in that department, for example. I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
So from here onwards, rather than using data to make the sample smaller, I’m conscious that I might have to use common sense instead.
[insert horror movie scream here]
We’re still going to apply numbers, of course. But you’re playing a dangerous game if you’re asking centre-backs to hit certain targets.
So without further ado, let’s see how each player left in the sample ranks according to some key metrics. Again, this would be much easier to do with forwards. Thanks to Richard Hughes for making my life harder.
And one final note. Despite scouting for a centre-back, I’m going to lean quite heavily on in-possession metrics here. I know, you want somebody who kicks people. But publicly available data struggles to understand anything beyond what happens when a player has the ball.
We deal with what we’ve got.
First on the menu, let’s take a glance at the players who are essentially the most valuable in possession of the ball. The guys who break lines with their passing. And the guys who carry like Joël Matip. Who shows up as the best once combining both of those elements?
The answer is Jan Paul van Hecke, with Nico Schlotterbeck also in the mix, two players who I’ve tipped on my podcast quite a few times over the past 12 months. Before this process started, I had a feeling both would reach judges’ houses.
Other notable mentions include Alessandro Bastoni, Dean Huijsen, and a certain Marc Guéhi, who actually shows up better than I expected.
Some high-profile players who fall short in this department include Maxence Lacroix and Dan Ballard. Matthijs de Ligt also surprisingly bad, although it’s reasonable to suggest he’s probably unattainable for obvious reasons.
In fact, let’s get rid of him. Why not? The last player to transfer between Liverpool and Manchester United was Phil Chisnall about 60 years ago. We go from 79 players to 78.
Next, let’s take a look at passing range. To do so, we’ve got long passes completed on one axis, and switches on another. Oh, you want definitions? Cool. A long pass is one over 30 yards. A switch is a pass that travels more than 40 yards of the width of the pitch.
