Great insight Josh. Do you think this could just be an age/maturity issue? In 17/18 (first year we had MSF), Salah & Mane were both 25 with Firmino about to turn 26. Is there an argument to say we let those players sort their finishing/technique out elsewhere and then bought them? Does any data back that up?
Also would you say, the ceiling therefore is higher with Nunez & Gakpo (both about to turn 25) versus Diaz (27)? Personally I think Diaz might be the one to go to Barca for a decent fee, Gakpo posted decent numbers playing LW against Fulham
I do think there's a maturity element in there. He still plays the game like a child. I can't help wondering what he might be like aged 28. Also, I think a less chaotic manager could benefit him next term.
Brilliant article and this topic is something that will continue to be one until he comes good.
Is there anything Liverpool coaching can do to make him less mental? Or do you think the fact he’s mental makes his game and taking that away will hinder him? His XG suggests he’s doing the right thing off of the ball in terms of reading play and getting into the right positions - the problem is the last decision he makes before the action. Surely that can be improved with coaching?
I’ve trained Jiu Jitsu for over 10 years, a lot of the decision making is down to consistent drilling and specific actions becoming muscle memory. Surely this has to translate to football.
Thanks Jack. I do think he will benefit from playing under a coach who is less chaotic and emotional. This guy clearly needs more composure and coolness. You;ll hopefully get some of that with age, but the playing style also has an impact. Haaland isn't that different to him, City are just a lot more methodical and patient.
I think that’s a potentially controversial but accurate assessment. Heavy metal football doesn’t quite lend itself to patience and composure.
The thing what concerns me is the amount of chances the team creates for him and we haven’t seen a lot of improvement and from a statistic perspective, the amount of XG he generates but fails to deliver on is concerning.
nice to see a balanced piece that is based on actual data. Have the same frustration when he misses easy chances but his movement definitely impacts games
Top drawer Josh. You put my thoughts into words beautifully. I hope he’s kept for at least another season, let’s see what a new coach can do with him. All he needs is a touch of luck and suddenly he’ll be a world beater. If a few more go in, it’ll breath even more confidence into him & more goals will follow. The trouble is him not hitting the net and his sidekick’s also. If Salah & co were banging them in, this barren spell would be tolerated. It’s just the disappointing end to what looked like a great season less than a month ago that has everyone gunning for blood.
All said and done, I don’t think there’s many clubs out there who’d cough up serious cash for him. So the new coach is going to have to make it work
Cheers Tom. I'm looking forward to seeing him under a new coach, one who is a bit more focused on control. I think that shift could benefit his composure.
This is a very good point.. thee best part about Salah, Bobby and mane (& then Jota) is their streaks rarely overlapped, but always one of them was on a bit of a streak
I was saying at the beginning of the season that if one or two of our forwards go on a hotstreak we’d be away.. but apart from Jota in Jan it hasn’t happened..
Good piece! I’d keep him one more year. He will then have 2 years left in his contract and will be 25. If he doesn’t explode by next year with the new manager then sell him and cut losses.
Great piece, Josh. I wonder if Darwin is not ready to be the club's main goalscorer, playing through the middle. He often looks effective running into space in wide areas.
I always found it funny people said Nunez wasn’t a data signing… imo he was an absolute data outlier interms of becoming a reliable, sustainable goal scorer.
But he’s a mad player.
For me, the biggest issue is he is too emotional.. whilst he always runs, never stops trying, his decision making is so obviously affected by outcome. Missing the big chances really obviously affects his confidence and decision making.
For us to trust the process, Nunez needs to trust the process. Keep making the high percentage shots and finishes. As Salah as his best.
The bad luck he has had with shots hitting posts and keepers has massively affected him elsewhere… in some games he is reluctant to shoot, in others trying crazy finishes..
The answer, IMO, really, is massive focus in coaching and analysis on finishing and decision making on finishing and the rest will come from there… work on going round keepers, the high percentage finishes in one on ones..
But Darwin will either explode or forever disappoint, despite posting really solid figures if you ignore the misses…
No, he overperformed xG by about seven goals in his final season and converted about 27% of his shots into goals, which is high. But he's been cold before and after that season.
Fantastic read josh, upto a couple a month I was generally happy with Darwin, he seemed to get his head around a lot the work without the ball and everything seemed to coming along nicely apart from the odd missed chance , unfortunately for me he has gone backwards over the 6 weeks, after the dearby the other night my opinion was to get rid in the summer, but with so many questions with our other forwards, iam not so sure, I actually would consider jota if a good offer come in the summer, not for his ability but his availability. He just not the pitch enough.
Thanks Dave, I wouldn't be surprised if one forward left this summer, but I really don't know who. It probably depends on bids and interest. Diaz is probably the most likely imo.
Before the slot appointment I would say diaz out og all the forwards is the likely one to leave, but apparently slot loves wingers in his system of play, high press and pace so not sure.
Josh, is there any similarity between Darwin and Thierry Henry when he first arrived at Arsenal? I remember Wenger pleading with the Arsenal “faithful” to give him time.
I'm not sure, we don't have access to data from back in those days, but possibly. I know Henry also spent time on the flanks before Wenger decided to retrain him.
Great article Josh but unfortunately I don't think Nunez will ever change. Very frustrating to watch. The constant offsides for a player at that level. 5 in the first half at home v City. It says a lot about his football brain. I would sell him but I never thought he was good enough for Liverpool I just don't think we will win any of the big titles with Nunez as our no 9.
Sell salah,Nunez ,gravenbach.if you don’t shoot you don’t score,if you 2 foot out from goal and you miss the goal you don’t belong in a red shirt,thanks Nunez it’s time to go,To many misses at point blank range,you need to be coached on how to shoot at goal,But I’m sorry it’s not with Liverpool ,maybe in a third division team as you are not good enough in liverpool
Great article Josh. I would keep him for next season at minimum to see what the new manager can get out of him and the rest of squad.
Thanks Sherwyn.
Great insight Josh. Do you think this could just be an age/maturity issue? In 17/18 (first year we had MSF), Salah & Mane were both 25 with Firmino about to turn 26. Is there an argument to say we let those players sort their finishing/technique out elsewhere and then bought them? Does any data back that up?
Also would you say, the ceiling therefore is higher with Nunez & Gakpo (both about to turn 25) versus Diaz (27)? Personally I think Diaz might be the one to go to Barca for a decent fee, Gakpo posted decent numbers playing LW against Fulham
I do think there's a maturity element in there. He still plays the game like a child. I can't help wondering what he might be like aged 28. Also, I think a less chaotic manager could benefit him next term.
Brilliant article and this topic is something that will continue to be one until he comes good.
Is there anything Liverpool coaching can do to make him less mental? Or do you think the fact he’s mental makes his game and taking that away will hinder him? His XG suggests he’s doing the right thing off of the ball in terms of reading play and getting into the right positions - the problem is the last decision he makes before the action. Surely that can be improved with coaching?
I’ve trained Jiu Jitsu for over 10 years, a lot of the decision making is down to consistent drilling and specific actions becoming muscle memory. Surely this has to translate to football.
Thanks Jack. I do think he will benefit from playing under a coach who is less chaotic and emotional. This guy clearly needs more composure and coolness. You;ll hopefully get some of that with age, but the playing style also has an impact. Haaland isn't that different to him, City are just a lot more methodical and patient.
I think that’s a potentially controversial but accurate assessment. Heavy metal football doesn’t quite lend itself to patience and composure.
The thing what concerns me is the amount of chances the team creates for him and we haven’t seen a lot of improvement and from a statistic perspective, the amount of XG he generates but fails to deliver on is concerning.
nice to see a balanced piece that is based on actual data. Have the same frustration when he misses easy chances but his movement definitely impacts games
Thanks Shanny.
Top drawer Josh. You put my thoughts into words beautifully. I hope he’s kept for at least another season, let’s see what a new coach can do with him. All he needs is a touch of luck and suddenly he’ll be a world beater. If a few more go in, it’ll breath even more confidence into him & more goals will follow. The trouble is him not hitting the net and his sidekick’s also. If Salah & co were banging them in, this barren spell would be tolerated. It’s just the disappointing end to what looked like a great season less than a month ago that has everyone gunning for blood.
All said and done, I don’t think there’s many clubs out there who’d cough up serious cash for him. So the new coach is going to have to make it work
Cheers Tom. I'm looking forward to seeing him under a new coach, one who is a bit more focused on control. I think that shift could benefit his composure.
This is a very good point.. thee best part about Salah, Bobby and mane (& then Jota) is their streaks rarely overlapped, but always one of them was on a bit of a streak
I was saying at the beginning of the season that if one or two of our forwards go on a hotstreak we’d be away.. but apart from Jota in Jan it hasn’t happened..
Fantastic work Josh!
Cheers Matt.
Good piece! I’d keep him one more year. He will then have 2 years left in his contract and will be 25. If he doesn’t explode by next year with the new manager then sell him and cut losses.
Thanks Victor. I just hope his explosion happens while he's still playing for Liverpool.
Great piece, Josh. I wonder if Darwin is not ready to be the club's main goalscorer, playing through the middle. He often looks effective running into space in wide areas.
Thanks for reading Amar.
great read. I'm sure conceding first and early doesn't help our forwards, always under pressure to score 2 and 3 just to win games
Thanks Leigh.
I always found it funny people said Nunez wasn’t a data signing… imo he was an absolute data outlier interms of becoming a reliable, sustainable goal scorer.
But he’s a mad player.
For me, the biggest issue is he is too emotional.. whilst he always runs, never stops trying, his decision making is so obviously affected by outcome. Missing the big chances really obviously affects his confidence and decision making.
For us to trust the process, Nunez needs to trust the process. Keep making the high percentage shots and finishes. As Salah as his best.
The bad luck he has had with shots hitting posts and keepers has massively affected him elsewhere… in some games he is reluctant to shoot, in others trying crazy finishes..
The answer, IMO, really, is massive focus in coaching and analysis on finishing and decision making on finishing and the rest will come from there… work on going round keepers, the high percentage finishes in one on ones..
But Darwin will either explode or forever disappoint, despite posting really solid figures if you ignore the misses…
When he was popping off for Benfica was he still running cold on chance conversion?
No, he overperformed xG by about seven goals in his final season and converted about 27% of his shots into goals, which is high. But he's been cold before and after that season.
Fantastic read josh, upto a couple a month I was generally happy with Darwin, he seemed to get his head around a lot the work without the ball and everything seemed to coming along nicely apart from the odd missed chance , unfortunately for me he has gone backwards over the 6 weeks, after the dearby the other night my opinion was to get rid in the summer, but with so many questions with our other forwards, iam not so sure, I actually would consider jota if a good offer come in the summer, not for his ability but his availability. He just not the pitch enough.
Thanks Dave, I wouldn't be surprised if one forward left this summer, but I really don't know who. It probably depends on bids and interest. Diaz is probably the most likely imo.
Before the slot appointment I would say diaz out og all the forwards is the likely one to leave, but apparently slot loves wingers in his system of play, high press and pace so not sure.
Gonner be interesting
Josh, is there any similarity between Darwin and Thierry Henry when he first arrived at Arsenal? I remember Wenger pleading with the Arsenal “faithful” to give him time.
I'm not sure, we don't have access to data from back in those days, but possibly. I know Henry also spent time on the flanks before Wenger decided to retrain him.
Who would buy him? I guess maybe Atletico or maybe West Ham.
Great article Josh but unfortunately I don't think Nunez will ever change. Very frustrating to watch. The constant offsides for a player at that level. 5 in the first half at home v City. It says a lot about his football brain. I would sell him but I never thought he was good enough for Liverpool I just don't think we will win any of the big titles with Nunez as our no 9.
Sell salah,Nunez ,gravenbach.if you don’t shoot you don’t score,if you 2 foot out from goal and you miss the goal you don’t belong in a red shirt,thanks Nunez it’s time to go,To many misses at point blank range,you need to be coached on how to shoot at goal,But I’m sorry it’s not with Liverpool ,maybe in a third division team as you are not good enough in liverpool