The Best There Is
Liverpool are good. Real good.
So I asked my paid subscribers to submit questions for a Q&A episode of my podcast in September. Liverpool had played just three matches under Arne Slot at the time.
One subscriber asked whether the Reds could challenge for the Premier League this term. I answered that question in a post — which you can read here — but here’s the crux of my response:
Liverpool can win the league this season, but whether they will or not depends on three major things for me, as well as various other micro factors.
Luck
Injuries
Manchester City
The Reds picked up 82 points with a marginally worse squad, tactical flaws and numerous injury woes last season. You should aim for higher this term, even without Jürgen Klopp at the helm.
Since I shared that post three months ago, pretty much everything has fallen for Liverpool. I’ve heard Slot has a birthmark on his foot in the shape of a four-leaf clover. Sometimes, it is just written.
Alright, let’s start with luck. You need that in football, and Liverpool have profited from their fair share. It usually comes in the form of scoring deflected goals or your opponents missing sitters, but the fixture schedule can have a pretty big impact, too.
This term, a catalogue of key players have missed games against Liverpool, including Martin Ødegaard, William Saliba, John Stones, Luke Shaw, Rodri, Vinicius Junior, João Pedro and Aaron Ramsdale. And on Wednesday night, Alexander Isak will join that list.
Slot got to experience Old Trafford when Erik ten Hag was enduring his final days in charge, with his first visit to the Emirates also coming at the perfect time given Mikel Arteta’s injury concerns in late October. Two traditionally difficult trips over and done with.
And the Reds have just faced City with the reigning champions winless since Halloween, looking more fragile than ever. Whether you want to admit it or not, the calendar has been kind to Liverpool. It’s nice when that happens.
Injuries tend to be more decisive, and — touch wood — the Reds have largely managed to avoid issues to their most important players, the guys who move the needle. Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah are the two main pillars.
But beyond those two, Ryan Gravenberch looks as fit as they come as our only real number six option. And Ibrahima Konaté — up until just a few days ago — has been more available than ever.
We’ve had injuries, of course. Alisson Becker, Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Harvey Elliott, Kostas Tsimikas, Federico Chiesa. Take your pick. But most of the guys behind our points total have remained healthy since the first whistle.
Arsenal, on the other hand, lost their golden boy in Ødegaard for seven Premier League games and won only three of them, and City remain without the first holding midfielder to win the Ballon d’Or since the dawn of time. Slot should think about buying a lottery ticket.
You can’t account for that stuff, although if you’ve got a deep squad — like Liverpool — you’ll cope better than others. Caoimhin Kelleher for Alisson. Conor Bradley for Alexander-Arnold. Darwin Núñez for Jota. Joe Gomez for Konaté.
Availability is massive in football. You’re only as good as your players, that’s the bottom line.
Then you’ve got the curious case of City. I’m not going to delve too much into their situation, because I did that in a post just a few days ago. You can read that here.
But in a nutshell, they are bad this season. In fact, on Sunday afternoon, they gave away shots worth a total of two expected goals or more for the sixth game in a row.
“Now is the time to suffer,” said Guardiola in the build-up to City’s clash at Anfield, with the Spaniard recognising that a host of his key players are either old, injured or unfit, which obviously impacts their ability to compete.
With a third of the campaign now completed, the holders are currently on course for about 67 points. You’ll be lucky to qualify for next season’s Champions League with that. Their goal difference is +3 after 13 bouts, the same as Brentford.
Listen up. As good as they have been under Guardiola — truly incredible — City aren’t going to win the Premier League this season. Recognise it. Accept it. Inhale it. Stop looking over your shoulder. Relax.
But despite all of those things falling for Liverpool, let’s not overlook just how good the Reds have been. Slot has managed 20 matches in all competitions now, winning 18 of them.
Plenty of Europe’s elite have lost at the hands of our beloved Liverpool since August, including Real Madrid, AC Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, Chelsea, City and RB Leipzig.
Our goal difference across all competitions is +34 now, having scored 46 while conceding just 12. And we’ve spent a grand total of about 150 minutes trailing this term, which is just nothing from a possible 1,800 played.
It generally sounds like pure exaggeration to suggest your team are the best in the world. I usually hate those throwaway statements. But in this case, as I type these words, I think it’s true.
Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Barcelona and Arsenal — yes, the Gunners are still good — deserve honourable mentions, but because of what Madrid and City are going through right now, Liverpool sit at the summit, for me.
Top of the Premier League by nine points. Top of the Champions League. Never behind. Always in control. For every goal we concede, we tend to score about 3.8 at the other end.
We can press. We can soak pressure. We can dominate the ball. We can play in transition. We can bully you. We can score from set-pieces. We can defend set-pieces. We can dictate the tempo of matches. We’re tactically flexible. We’ve got squad depth. We’ve got elite individuals. We’ve got the last pass from everywhere.
If Liverpool keep accumulating points at their current rate, they’ll end the campaign with about 99 points. That’s how good we’ve been so far. Being the best there is means something. But it tends to mean a lot more in May than December.
There’s a kinda unwritten rule among supporters on Merseyside. You don’t talk about winning the league until it’s done. It’s not over until it’s over. But something would have to go seriously wrong for Liverpool to lose top spot from here.
We haven’t won anything yet, but let’s just say I’m more concerned about a global pandemic than Arsenal.
The only real concern I have is that we'll run Gravenberch and 1 or 2 more midfielders into the ground i march. Too much football for 5 guys to cover and we don't really use more than 5.
Hey Josh - quick question - would Pep Guardiola trade his midfielders for Liverpool's midfielders straight up right now? Looking at how much praise he heaped on Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, and Jones, he clearly likes them. They are all young and full of energy and Jurgen really deserves a lot of credit for assembling his Liverpool 2.0 midfield, but I honestly think Pep would trade Nunes, Silva, Rico Lewis, KDB, Kovacic and Gundogan in a heartbeat for Grav, Szobo, Mac, Jones, and Elliott. It gets a little trickier when you have to guess if Rodri comes back as good as ever off his injury and if you call Grealish, Foden and Doku midfielders, but for the rest of this season, I think that trade is a no brainer, they just look very old and weak in midfield.
Who would have thought we would have such an advantage over any Pep team as he LOVES his midfielders!