Thinking About Transfers
What can we expect from Liverpool in 2025?
Maybe it’s because we’re enduring the 99th international break of the season, who knows? But it feels like transfer chat has ramped up a bit over the past few weeks on Merseyside.
Liverpool are starting to get linked with players, with Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez the latest name to appear in the news. Talk surrounding Martín Zubimendi isn’t going away, either. He still hasn’t signed that new contract in San Sebastián.
I also received plenty of questions from my paid subscribers last week, with lots of interest in the upcoming January window. In other words, I’ve got an excuse to write about the transfer market this week, so I’m taking it.
So ahead of the last window, I wrote about anticipating quite a boring summer at Anfield. The below segment is taken from that piece — which you can read here — produced in April.
You never know, but I have a hunch that we’re in for a relatively quiet window this summer, unless wholesale changes need to be made because of a major sale or a change of system.
Liverpool have a squad that is good enough to win the Premier League. I don’t know why that was ever in doubt. The engine room is what needed fixing last year, which is why five midfielders left and four arrived. This time around, not much is clear in that sense.
Well, a quiet summer ended up happening. Giorgi Mamardashvili was signed, but we won’t see him until next year at the earliest. And Federico Chiesa also joined. At this rate, we probably won’t see him until next year, either.
As for outgoings, Fábio Carvalho and Sepp van den Berg departed. Richard Hughes got healthy fees for the pair, but overall, the new Liverpool sporting director conducted very little surgery on the squad that he inherited.
Looking forwards — and I know you’re not going to want to hear this — but I kinda expect similar to what we’ve already seen. I don’t think people realise how much depth Arne Slot currently has within his ranks.
When your squad is already good, the job becomes about fine tuning rather than sanctioning a complete redecoration. Fine tuning means subtle tweaks, it means trimming the edges. Put the hacksaw down, scissors will do. You don’t just buy and sell players for the sake of it. The core is there.
I’m pretty sure Hughes will explore more sales in 2025. Maybe not this winter, but players like Tyler Morton, Wataru Endō, Caoimhín Kelleher and Joe Gomez are worth more in the market than they are to Liverpool right now.
The Reds are in a position of luxury at present, whereby four fringe players could leave and only one might be required to replace them. Sell a few second strings, and use those funds to buy one or two belters.
Taking a glance at Liverpool’s squad, we’ve got a few positions of need, and you can spot most of them by checking how many minutes each player has amassed so far.
Two players have played virtually every minute in the Premier League: Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Gravenberch. That isn’t a surprise. Slot doesn’t really have a backup left-sided centre-back, and he doesn’t have a backup number six, either.
Mohamed Salah runs them close, but that’s normal given Chiesa and Harvey Elliott have both suffered from fitness issues of late. The Egyptian has probably been forced to play more often than ideal.
Andy Robertson and Kostas Tsimikas have shared the left-back spot, but the former is 30 years old and the latter is 28. It doesn’t matter who your favourite is. Liverpool will need to acquire the next guy sooner rather than later before selling one of the duo already in the building.
So given all that, I think the Reds will have an interest in adding:
A left-footed centre-back
A deep-lying midfielder who can rival Gravenberch
A left-back
There;s always talk about a new striker with doubts surrounding Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez for different reasons, but I honestly think both might just be fine for now.
I tend to think ahead regarding potential moves, but I don’t feel like I can in this case because we still don’t know what’s going on with Van Dijk, Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Their futures will have a massive impact on what Hughes does. Kerkez, for example, makes more sense as a target in my mind if Alexander-Arnold stays at Liverpool. Why? Because the Bournemouth full-back is relatively conventional in the sense that he hugs the touchline, overlaps and underlaps. But he’s not one to invert towards the centre circle.
Alexander-Arnold can do that from the right, so it wouldn’t matter too much if Kerkez did the opposite on the left. But if our number 66 did indeed move to Spain, all of Slot’s full-back options would be wide guys, which would conflict with the current tactical landscape of the Premier League. In that case, maybe Rayan Aït-Nouri would be a better target because of his ability to do midfield stuff.
We can predict as much as we want regarding future business, but the bottom line is three of our stars are on the verge of leaving. Nothing matters until we know what’s going on with them, which is super annoying.
Given every point I’ve made, I’d be somewhat surprised if Liverpool signed a new player in January. Pundits and supporters will talk about the opportunity to strengthen to win the Premier League this term, but that’s not how squad building works.
You don’t sign players to get over the line. You sign players to make a difference on the pitch for the next five years. If you can acquire a long-term target, cool. But don’t force the issue.
Keep Van Dijk, Salah and Alexander-Arnold at the club. That’d be enough Christmas business for me.
You are probably correct about no 'planned' signings. However, a team unexpectantly dropping out of the European competitions can trigger a transfer. There could be a fanbase reaction if we don't buy a midfielder in January and then one of Mac Allister or Gravenberch gets injured in February or March and we drop off.
I hope by now, Hughes has an indication, who from VVD, Mo and Trent is probably leaving in Summer.
I see January as fine tuning and opportunist. It'll be a successful period if we can get a couple of the contracts signed. A Fit again Chiesa and Elliott will feel like new signings.