You are probably correct about no 'planned' signings. However, a team unexpectantly dropping out of the European competitions can trigger a transfer. There could be a fanbase reaction if we don't buy a midfielder in January and then one of Mac Allister or Gravenberch gets injured in February or March and we drop off.
I hope by now, Hughes has an indication, who from VVD, Mo and Trent is probably leaving in Summer.
I understand that, but what if you buy someone who isn’t that good and then Gravenberch and Mac both remain healthy? Then you’ve spent money for nothing and taken up a space in the squad. I’m very much in the camp of avoiding mistakes at all costs. Only move when you’re certain about your man.
I see January as fine tuning and opportunist. It'll be a successful period if we can get a couple of the contracts signed. A Fit again Chiesa and Elliott will feel like new signings.
I tend to agree with your views here. One thing I would like to hear your opinion about is why there are calls for a left-footed centre-back as a backup to Virgil when he himself is right-footed and the Ibou, who is left-footed plays on the right side. Also for the 3 positions you mentioned, its difficult to get a player signed in Jan and have them hit the ground running. The ball playing 6 seems most likely to do that, but then won't be straightforward given it'll be a very important role in completely new system for them. Having said that, would like to see Zubimendi sign for us this window.
So Virgil is a bit of an anomaly in the sense that yes he’s right footed, but he doesn’t need to be left footed because he offers a ton of value on the ball regardless. You ordinarily want a left footer for your build-up. Konate is right footed playing on the right.
Josh, this is blue sky thinking but do you ever see Trent (assuming he signs a new contract) play inverted left back a la Joao Cancelo and that would allow Conor Bradley to play a more traditional right back role? Although that would mean we need someone to hug the touchline on the left hand side…thoughts??
Dunno, I think Gomez is pretty important after all. Let's put it like this, if he wasn't around I'd be bricking it right now :)
If he wants out in the summer he'll need replacing. Thank God we're not in that Club World Cup nonsense
Also, bit worried about all the minutes Grav is playing after some seasons of little involvement, ideally I would go for another DM if Slot isn't having Endo to start games
Ya I read the piece at the time, I just don't know how you can have a back up centreback/utility defender that 'moves the needle'. If he was first choice I'd understand you could upgrade but ordinary centre backs like Guehi were valued at around 60-70 mil last Summer
I've got no issue with Gomez staying. I do like him, and I don't intend to talk him down, I just don't talk him up.
We could've got £50m for him in the summer, which is pretty good considering he's only played 57 minutes in the Premier League so far this term. £50m is enough to get you a really good — and younger — replacement if you're willing to shop outside of England.
Getting some banter on squad-building out of my system before the focus shifts to a 5-week sprint that takes us until the end of 2024 when there's a little breather in fixture congestion.
Assuming: Trent is leaving; Virg & Mo sign short-term extensions; Joey wants to stay and/or no club offers >£25 million; If so, I'd like to see substantial squad surgery in the summer [~£100 m net]
1a) LEFT BACK - sell Kostas & sign Ait Nouri; Ait Nouri's off-the-charts technical skills + strong athleticism would transform our build-up + attack; even if Trent stays, I'd sign him over Kerkez bc we would be more unpredictable in build-up and attack (can build or attack from/on the left or right with the potential to change tactics during a match); Kostas still has some market value to help pay Ait Nouri's release clause; Robbo stays on for the last year of his contract [£25m net spend]
1b) RIGHT BACK - Trent leaves & we sign a RB who can compete w Conor for the XI; I don't want Trent to leave but it sure seems like he's gonna; the only silver lining is Conor has a huge ceiling & LFC is the right club / Arne the right coach to help him realize that potential; we'll need a <25yo RB to replace Trent who brings similar skills to Conor [£35 m]
2) DEEP-LYING MID - sell Wata & sign ???; hoping that Zubimendi isn't put off by the prospect of competing w Ryan & he still wants to join; he's got decent size (5' 11", 170) to survive the PL & exceptional technique / match smarts to fit Arne's tactical set-up; if he doesn't want to come, I might go with Macca here & purchase an "8" in the mold of Ryan / Curtis / Dom with technique, SIZE & athleticism; worried a bit about having too many small mids like Caqueret [£45 m net]
3) CENTER FWD - sell Darwin & sign ???; at the end of the season, the "Darwin experiment" will have run 3 seasons; he's always been a misfit but made up for it with tons of quality shots, converting enough to goals; this season, the shots (& goals) have dried up; if there are takers >£26 million (his book value), we should cut our losses & invest in a new 9; maybe Fede can contribute there & we can wait a season for this one [£35 m net]
4) OTHER SALES - sell Caoimhin & Giorgi stays as GK2 [+£25 m] + sell Tyler & promote Trey as the 7th midfielder [+£15 m]
Josh - are there any young players in the Championship, League One or in sides U-21 sides that on the verge of making that leap that you think the club could get a jump on other teams by signing in January? I always wondered how serious the interest was in Lavia, but if the team had identified him early a January buy with a loan back might have been doable for much less than the 53 million Chelsea paid for him. Now that Edwards has "got the band back together" I am hoping for a few more of these savvy moves as we are always in need of homegrown players and even if we "miss" on players like Fabio or Sepp, they can almost always be sold on for a profit. So, any names we should keep an eye on?
What lies ahead is the need to quickly sort out the future of the three players. I would prefer this to be resolved sooner rather than creating a mess.
On an opportunistic note, Lyon presents a good prospect for FSG to take over, as they are in a situation similar to the one we were in when we purchased the club.
Always great speculating on transfers. Do you expect us to be chasing Wirtz for a signature in the summer?
Also since other big teams will be looking to strengthen CB position, e.g. City, Real Madrid, Bayern, do you expect us to preemptively acquire a target this Winter transfer window?
Agree Kash. Be ready to pounce if an opportunity arises that accelerates the long-term plan for squad-building (no panic buys). Otherwise, conserve funds for the summer window.
You are probably correct about no 'planned' signings. However, a team unexpectantly dropping out of the European competitions can trigger a transfer. There could be a fanbase reaction if we don't buy a midfielder in January and then one of Mac Allister or Gravenberch gets injured in February or March and we drop off.
I hope by now, Hughes has an indication, who from VVD, Mo and Trent is probably leaving in Summer.
I understand that, but what if you buy someone who isn’t that good and then Gravenberch and Mac both remain healthy? Then you’ve spent money for nothing and taken up a space in the squad. I’m very much in the camp of avoiding mistakes at all costs. Only move when you’re certain about your man.
I see January as fine tuning and opportunist. It'll be a successful period if we can get a couple of the contracts signed. A Fit again Chiesa and Elliott will feel like new signings.
Will be interesting to see if Hughes spots an opportunity at Lyon. Worth keeping an eye on their situation. Caqueret is over there.
I tend to agree with your views here. One thing I would like to hear your opinion about is why there are calls for a left-footed centre-back as a backup to Virgil when he himself is right-footed and the Ibou, who is left-footed plays on the right side. Also for the 3 positions you mentioned, its difficult to get a player signed in Jan and have them hit the ground running. The ball playing 6 seems most likely to do that, but then won't be straightforward given it'll be a very important role in completely new system for them. Having said that, would like to see Zubimendi sign for us this window.
So Virgil is a bit of an anomaly in the sense that yes he’s right footed, but he doesn’t need to be left footed because he offers a ton of value on the ball regardless. You ordinarily want a left footer for your build-up. Konate is right footed playing on the right.
Josh, this is blue sky thinking but do you ever see Trent (assuming he signs a new contract) play inverted left back a la Joao Cancelo and that would allow Conor Bradley to play a more traditional right back role? Although that would mean we need someone to hug the touchline on the left hand side…thoughts??
Yeah, I’ve always been interested in that idea with Trent. I wrote about it here not long ago - https://open.substack.com/pub/distancecovered/p/mailbag-omar-marmoush-dominik-szoboszlai
Dunno, I think Gomez is pretty important after all. Let's put it like this, if he wasn't around I'd be bricking it right now :)
If he wants out in the summer he'll need replacing. Thank God we're not in that Club World Cup nonsense
Also, bit worried about all the minutes Grav is playing after some seasons of little involvement, ideally I would go for another DM if Slot isn't having Endo to start games
Josh, why do you always talk down Joe Gomez.
-Rarely let's us down
-Can play all across the back 4
-Homegrown
-Not first choice - name a better 3rd choice CB?
-Seems to be liked within the squad
-Still only 27
To replace him we would have to pay more than we'd get for him and risk getting a player that isn't as good
All in this piece - https://open.substack.com/pub/distancecovered/p/knowing-when-to-sell
Ya I read the piece at the time, I just don't know how you can have a back up centreback/utility defender that 'moves the needle'. If he was first choice I'd understand you could upgrade but ordinary centre backs like Guehi were valued at around 60-70 mil last Summer
I've got no issue with Gomez staying. I do like him, and I don't intend to talk him down, I just don't talk him up.
We could've got £50m for him in the summer, which is pretty good considering he's only played 57 minutes in the Premier League so far this term. £50m is enough to get you a really good — and younger — replacement if you're willing to shop outside of England.
And fwiw, I'd rather have Gomez than Guehi.
Getting some banter on squad-building out of my system before the focus shifts to a 5-week sprint that takes us until the end of 2024 when there's a little breather in fixture congestion.
Assuming: Trent is leaving; Virg & Mo sign short-term extensions; Joey wants to stay and/or no club offers >£25 million; If so, I'd like to see substantial squad surgery in the summer [~£100 m net]
1a) LEFT BACK - sell Kostas & sign Ait Nouri; Ait Nouri's off-the-charts technical skills + strong athleticism would transform our build-up + attack; even if Trent stays, I'd sign him over Kerkez bc we would be more unpredictable in build-up and attack (can build or attack from/on the left or right with the potential to change tactics during a match); Kostas still has some market value to help pay Ait Nouri's release clause; Robbo stays on for the last year of his contract [£25m net spend]
1b) RIGHT BACK - Trent leaves & we sign a RB who can compete w Conor for the XI; I don't want Trent to leave but it sure seems like he's gonna; the only silver lining is Conor has a huge ceiling & LFC is the right club / Arne the right coach to help him realize that potential; we'll need a <25yo RB to replace Trent who brings similar skills to Conor [£35 m]
2) DEEP-LYING MID - sell Wata & sign ???; hoping that Zubimendi isn't put off by the prospect of competing w Ryan & he still wants to join; he's got decent size (5' 11", 170) to survive the PL & exceptional technique / match smarts to fit Arne's tactical set-up; if he doesn't want to come, I might go with Macca here & purchase an "8" in the mold of Ryan / Curtis / Dom with technique, SIZE & athleticism; worried a bit about having too many small mids like Caqueret [£45 m net]
3) CENTER FWD - sell Darwin & sign ???; at the end of the season, the "Darwin experiment" will have run 3 seasons; he's always been a misfit but made up for it with tons of quality shots, converting enough to goals; this season, the shots (& goals) have dried up; if there are takers >£26 million (his book value), we should cut our losses & invest in a new 9; maybe Fede can contribute there & we can wait a season for this one [£35 m net]
4) OTHER SALES - sell Caoimhin & Giorgi stays as GK2 [+£25 m] + sell Tyler & promote Trey as the 7th midfielder [+£15 m]
Josh - are there any young players in the Championship, League One or in sides U-21 sides that on the verge of making that leap that you think the club could get a jump on other teams by signing in January? I always wondered how serious the interest was in Lavia, but if the team had identified him early a January buy with a loan back might have been doable for much less than the 53 million Chelsea paid for him. Now that Edwards has "got the band back together" I am hoping for a few more of these savvy moves as we are always in need of homegrown players and even if we "miss" on players like Fabio or Sepp, they can almost always be sold on for a profit. So, any names we should keep an eye on?
What lies ahead is the need to quickly sort out the future of the three players. I would prefer this to be resolved sooner rather than creating a mess.
On an opportunistic note, Lyon presents a good prospect for FSG to take over, as they are in a situation similar to the one we were in when we purchased the club.
Fingers crossed! 🤞
Always great speculating on transfers. Do you expect us to be chasing Wirtz for a signature in the summer?
Also since other big teams will be looking to strengthen CB position, e.g. City, Real Madrid, Bayern, do you expect us to preemptively acquire a target this Winter transfer window?
Agree Kash. Be ready to pounce if an opportunity arises that accelerates the long-term plan for squad-building (no panic buys). Otherwise, conserve funds for the summer window.